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"Imperial Crusades: a Diary of Three Wars" by Cockburn and St. Clair


Today's Stories

Weekend Edition

Sept. 15-16, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
The General Came to Washington

Vicente Navarro
How the U.S. Schemed Against Spain's Transition from Dictatorship to Democracy

Mike Whitney
Plummeting Dollar, Credit Crunch

Herman Mindshaftgap
Has There Ever Been a Surge? If so, Has it a Future?

Ellen Cantarow
Girls! Music! Palestine!

Jordan Flaherty
K-Ville: Fox's New Paean to the N.O.P.D.

Zachary Hurwitz
Julio Cusurichi on Amazonian Development

September 14, 2007

Debbie Nathan
New York Times reporter was a member of an illegal underage porn site, claims he was only "posing as online predator"

Franklin Lamb
Sabra-Shatilla, 25 Years Later

Patrick Cockburn
Greet Bush and Die: The Killing of Abu Risha

Farzana Versey
The World's Richest Muslim Tycoon

Alan Farago
This is Florida, Epicenter of the Housing Bust and of Public Corruption

Hank Edson
Bill's New Book is Giving Me a Headache

September 13, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
Petraeus Confided Presidential Ambitions to Iraqi Official

Scott Vest, former Air Force Captain at Minot
The Barksdale Nukes

Andy Worthington
Guantánamo: "Ghost" Prisoners Speak At Last

Michael Baney
Mr. Fixit of Quake-Stricken Peru Has Death Squad Past

Dr. Susan Block
Is U.S. Run by Secret Homintern?

September 12, 2007

Paul Craig Roberts
American Economy: RIP

Stan Goff
The Petraeus Report

William Blum
When Soldiers Mutiny...Only Those Fighting the War Can End It.

Manuel Garcia
Forgetting 9/11

Debbie Nathan
Why One Sex Survey Didn't Make the Big Time

September 11, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
The Fakery of General Petraeus

Iain Boal
Specters of Malthus: Scarcity, Poverty, Apocalypse

Michael Dickinson
Osama on 9/11

Guerry Hoddersen
Free Speech is Not Given, but Taken

Bill Hatch
Irish Politics in Old Time California

Gary Leupp
The Legacy of Luciano Pavarotti

Website of the Day
Elisa Salasin's "My September 11th"

September 10, 2007

Uri Avnery
A Big Victory Against the Wall

Patrick Cockburn
Petraeus's Closet

Saul Landau and Farrah Hassen
Screwing Up In Iraq

David Michael Green
Why Fred Thompson is Uniquely Qualified to be the GOP's Nominee

Pius Adesanmi
A Solidarity Letter to a Victim of Michael Vick

Betty Schneider
How to Deal With Sex Offenders

September 8 / 9, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
Will the US Really Bomb Iran?

Saul Landau
The Irrational Drama of a Declining Empire

Ismael Hossein-Zadeh
Hurricane Katrina and Bush's Wars

Ray McGovern
Petraeus, the Westmoreland of Iraq

Matthew Abraham
Finkelstein's Legacy at DePaul

Alan Farago
The Governor and the Growth Machine

Christopher Brauchli
Grand Old Party Animals

Rannie Amiri
Battle of the Camps

Fred Gardner
Will Snoops Get Stopped?

James L. Secor
B-52 Flexing Nuclear Muscles: H-Bombs Over Barksdale

Missy Comley Beattie
Choices: Shall We Stay or Shall We Go Now?

Ben Tripp
Still in the Clover

Francis Boyle
The University of Illinois' Little Red Sambo Show

Joe Allen and Paul D'Amato
Jason Bourne vs. James Bond

Website of the Weekend
Drilling Wyoming: the View from Above


September 7, 2007

Robert Fantina
Those Iraq Reports: Bush vs. Reality

John Ross
Coca-Cola's Raid on a Sacred Mountain

James Brooks
The Occupation Within

Russell Mokhiber
Robert Reich and the Elimination of Corporate Criminal Liability

Joshua Frank
The Green Implosion Continues: Cyberlynching John Murphy

John Walsh
On the Green Party

Mark Brenner
New York Taxi Workers Strike Over Tracking Devices

Mike Ferner
"I Will Salute No More Forever"

Website of the Day
Help Save Osny Zachary's Life

 

September 6, 2007

Kathleen and Bill Christison
Bush, Iran and Israel's Hidden Hand

Allan J. Lichtman
When General Petraeus Speaks, Don't Listen ...

Norman Solomon
The Secret Addiction of Thomas Friedman

Yifat Susskind
Hurricane Felix's First Responders: Courage and Tragedy on the Miskito Coast

Catherine Fenton
Why I Am Going to the Protest

Laura Santina
Can the War Machine be Contained?

Farzana Versey
Fission Kashmir

Yves Engler
Haiti: Where a Wage of $2 a Day is Too Much for the Lords of Industry to Pay

Kelly Overton
Bang Bang; Shoot Shoot: Is Hunting Racist?

Michael Simmons
One Jew's Views: The Strange Genius of Drew Friedman and Kominsky Crumb

Website of the Day
Dams and Genocide in Guatemala

 

 

September 5, 2007

Stan Goff
The End Begins

Michael Dickinson
Working for Mother Teresa: Memoirs of a Rebellious Volunteer

Matthew Abraham
Standing Firm with Norman Finkelstein and DePaul's Heroic Students: a Defining Moment

Patrick Cockburn
The Basra Debacle

Dave Lindorff
Beware the Wounded Beast

Paul Craig Roberts
Who Are the Fanatics?

Clifton Ross
Ecuador and the Struggle for Latin American Unity

Elizabeth Schulte
Katrina's Forgotten Refugees

Joseph Grosso
Labor Day in New York City

Ben Terrall
Where's Nancy? On Trying to Protest Pelosi in San Francisco

Website of the Day
A Guide to Narco Dollars

 

September 4, 2007

Jean Bricmont
Why Bush Can Get Away with Attacking Iran

Patrick Cockburn
Cut and Run in Iraq

Ron Jacobs
The Haditha Massacre: Spinning a War Crime

Tom Kerr
Buried Alive on San Quentin's Death Row

Gary Leupp
The Case of Jose Maria Sison

Sonja Karkar
The Weeping Olive Trees of Palestine

Heather Gray
The Best and Worst of America: 9/11, Joseph Lowery and the Lethal Silence of Billy Graham

Fidel Castro
The Super-Revolutionaries

Jackie Corr
Home Depot Comes to Butte--Begging Bowl in Hand

Sunsara Taylor
Katrina and the Progress of the System

Website of the Day
Colombia Journal

 

September 3, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
Brits Flee from Basra

Eamon McCann
Qana, Derry: The Dead Lie in Familiar Shapes

Joshua Frank
The End of the Green Party?

Chris Floyd
Post-Mortem America: Bush's Year of Triumph

Marjorie Cohn
A Look at Bush's Iran War Plans

Walter Brasch
The News Drones: How Fake Photos Helped Lead the US to War in Iraq

Matt Reichel
Redefining the American Dream

Website of the Day
Don't Get Fooled Again

 

September 1 / 2, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
Entrapment Snares Larry Craig

Andy Worthington
Britain's Guantánamo

Saul Landau
The Tragic Ordeal of the Cuban Five

David Keen
An Occident Waiting to Happen: Intellectuals and the War on Terror

Patrick Cockburn
The Collapse of Iraq's Health Care Services

Diana Johnstone
Back in Uncle Sam's Pocket

George Longstreth, MD
& Karen Longstreth, RN
The Sorrows of Occupation: Life in the West Bank

Linda M. Woolf
A Sad Day for Psychologists--a Sadder Day for Human Rights

Ralph Nader
Wrapping the World with Advertising

Fred Gardner
The Trial of Mollie Fry, MD

Ben Tripp
Enquiry in America Today

David Michael Green
American Indigestion: Why Bush Governs from the Gut

Missy Comley Beattie
Looking for Love in All the Wrong Places: What the GOP Hasn't Learned About Tolerance

Michael Dickinson
Who's Cheating: Remembering Princess Diana

Paul Krassner
Assholes of the Week: From Larry Craig to Wesley Clark

Ron Jacobs
A Sports Nation of Millions

Poets' Basement
Buknatski, Davies and Mickey Z

 

August 31, 2007

Jeff Gibbs
Why I Am Not Going to the Protest

Paul Craig Roberts
The War Criminal in the Living Room

Ray McGovern
Do We Have the Courage to Stop War with Iran?

Robert Weissman
The Benchmarks Iraq is Missing

Matt Vidal
Subprime Lending and Shady Mortgages

Robin Mittenthal
The Biofuels Trap

Chris Kutalik
Auto Makers Push Health Care Trust Solution for Industry in Crisis

Richard Forno
Watching Freedom's Watch

Binoy Kampmark
Dianified

Dave Zirin
Kenneth Foster Lives

Website of the Day
Free the Jena 6

 

August 30, 2007

Gary Leupp
Larry Craig on the Seat

John Ross
Dead Forest Defenders

Anthony DiMaggio
Arabic as a Terrorist Language: the Right-Wing Assault on the Gibran Academy

Jordan Flaherty
Racism and Criminal Justice in New Orleans

Michael Donnelly
The Sierra Club Greenwashes Al Gore (and Desecrates John Muir)

Russell Mokhiber
Whiskey is for Drinking, Water is for Fighting

Dennis Brutus
and Patrick Bond
Global Financial Apartheid

William S. Lind
The Truth Tellers

Martha Rosenberg
They Call Him Dr. Cruel

Jeff Leys / Brian Terrell
Seasons of Discontent: a Presidential Occupation Project

Website of the Day
Bragg: "Old Clash Fan Fight Song"


August 29, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
Maliki and The Mass Shia Pilgrimage to Kerbala

Winslow T. Wheeler
The Costs of the Afghanistan War

David Rosen
The GOP's Outed All-Stars: The Forced Freeing of Gay Men from the Republican Closet

Dave Zirin
Confronting Katrina

Paul Craig Roberts
More Shame, More Sorrow

Diane Farsetta
Christie Todd Whitman's Nuclear Spinning Wheel

Ben Davis
Who Won't Stand Up for Kenneth Foster?: Charles Rangel, For One

Alan Farago
The Housing Crisis and the Environment

Jenna Orkin
Echoes of 9/11: Another Fire at Ground Zero

Don Monkerud
The Vanishing American Vacation

Richard Nasser
Surfing Gaza: More Uplifting News from NPR

Website of the Day
Don't Sleep on the Struggle

 

August 28, 2007

Uri Avnery
The Language of Force

Bill Quigley
Katrina, Two Years Later

Joshua Frank
The Fight to Save the Rocky Mountains

China Hand
"I am Alden Pyle:" Bush's Vietnam Fantasy

Firmin DeBrabander
Drug Wars: From Afghanistan to Baltimore

Charles Peña
Nuclear Fear Factor

Andy Worthington
Good Riddance, Gonzales

Ramzy Baroud
Abbas and the Abyss

Anthony Papa
Roger Stone's New Patsy

Ashley Smith
Drawing the Line at Kennebunkport

Website of the Day
B is for Bomb


August 27, 2007

Jorge Mariscal
The General Reports

Bill Christison
Why the US and Israel Should Lose Middle East Wars

Manuel Garcia, Jr.
911 Emergency! Calling Robert Fisk!: You are Now Entering a Black Hole

Anthony DiMaggio
Chronicle of a Coup Foretold?: Bush, al-Maliki and the Press

Bruce A. Roth
India and the New Nuclear Era

John Walsh
Abe Foxman's Genocide Denial Roadshow, Part 2

Dave Lindorff
Gonzo's Gone

Ron Jacobs
Taking It to the Streets

Binoy Kampmark
Poshed Up: Why the Beckhams Should Go Back to Brighty

Russell D. Hoffman
My Favorite Scientist: John Gofman, Bane of the Nuclear Industry

Website of the Day
George W. Told the Nation

 

 

 


 

 

 

Subscribe Online

September 15-16, 2007

Plummeting Dollar, Credit Crunch...

Final Stop: Soup Kitchen U.S.A.

By MIKE WHITNEY


The days of the dollar as the world’s “reserve currency” may be drawing to a close. In August, foreign central banks and governments dumped a whopping 3.8 per cent of their holdings of US debt. Rising unemployment and the ongoing housing slump have triggered fears of a recession sending wary foreign investors running for the exits. China, Japan and Taiwan have been leading the sell off which has caused the steepest decline since 1992.  

To some extent, the losses have been concealed by the up-tick in Treasuries sales to US investors who’ve been fleeing the money markets in droves. Investors have been trying to avoid the fallout from money funds that have been contaminated by mortgage-backed assets. Naturally, they bought US government bonds which are considered a safe bet. But that doesn’t change the fact that the dollar’s foundation is steadily eroding and that foreign support for the dollar is vanishing.  US bonds are no longer regarded as a “safe haven”.

The dollar slumped to a 15 year low against 6 of its most actively traded peers and set the stage for an early morning market rout on Wall Street.

Foreign investment and currency deregulation has been a real boon for the stock market which thrives of a steady flow of cheap capital. It’s also been good for ravenous consumers who like to borrow boatloads of low interest cash for their toys, SUVs and McMansions.

Of course, when things seem too good to last---they usually don’t. The economy is contracting; credit is getting tighter, and the stock market is flailing about aimlessly. As capital flight accelerates; interest rates in the US will rise, unemployment will mushroom, and the dollar will fall. It can’t be avoided. American markets and consumers will be compelled to curb their appetite for cheap foreign credit.
Overseas investors own more than $4.4 trillion in US debt in the form of bonds and securities.  Even if they sell only 25 per cent of that sum, the US would feel the pinch of hyper-inflation. For the last decade foreigners have been eager to by our Treasuries and equities---gobbling up America’s enormous $800 billion current account deficit and keeping demand for the dollar artificially high. But just like the subprime mortgage holder whose “teaser rate” has suddenly expired; the US now faces the painful adjustment of higher payments and less discretionary income for indulgences.
 Maybe the charade could have carried on a bit longer if not for the belligerent Bush foreign policy that has alienated friends and foes alike. But, then, maybe not. After all, the Fed’s loose monetary policies added to Bush’s extravagant spending---$3 trillion added to the National Debt in just 6 years--- doomed the country from the beginning. Deficit spending has been the central organizing principle from day

1. Now comes the hangover.
Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke is expected to drop the Fed funds rate on September 18. The move will provide more “easy credit-crack” for the addicts on Wall Street but it could also trigger a run on the dollar. That’s what keeps the Fed chief up at night.  

The Bush Team was warned repeatedly by the Bank of International Settlements, the World Bank, the IMF and the European Central Bank that its policies were “unsustainable” and would end in an economic meltdown. But they brushed aside the warnings with the same casual indifference as they did the critics of the war in Iraq.

Why would they care if the country suffered? Their friends would still get their unfunded tax cuts. Their private armies and “no bid” contractors would still get their payola. The Democrats would still cave in on the enormous “off budget” war spending. And, they’d still be able to print as much counterfeit money as they chose until every last copper farthing was drained from the public till.

No worries. Besides the media would mop up the mess they’d made with their usual “happy talk”. As the economic calamity unfolds, we can expect to see the usual parade of lacquer-haired phonies on the Business Channel singing the praises of “free markets”.  The problems we’re now facing should have been easy to spot for anyone willing to look beyond the empty rhetoric of the TV Pollyannas or their cheerleading co-conspirators at the White House.

It was a hoax. And the seven years of sleepwalking has cost us dearly. Unemployment is up, consumer spending is down, the housing market has slipped into recession, and the stock market is lurching back and forth like an overloaded washing machine. All of this could have been foreseen by anyone with minimal critical thinking skills and a healthy dose of skepticism of government.

Consider this: US GDP is 70 per cent consumer spending. That means that wages have to increase beyond the rate of inflation OR THE ECONOMY CAN’T GROW. It’s just that simple. So how is it that 50 per cent of the American people still believe Bush’s supply side baloney that cutting taxes for the uber-rich strengthens the economy? How does that increase wages or build a healthy middle class. If we want a strong economy wages have to keep pace with productivity so that workers can buy the goods they produce.

Greenspan knows that. So does Bush. But they chose to hide it behind an “easy credit” smokescreen so they could weaken the dollar, off-shore thousands of industries, out-source 3 million manufacturing jobs, fund an illegal war, and maintain the lethal flow of the $800 billion current account deficit into American equities and Treasuries. In truth, there hasn’t been any growth in the economy since Bush took office in 2000. What we’ve seen is an ever-expanding bubble of personal and corporate debt amplified by a “structured finance” system that magically transforms liabilities (subprime loans) into securities and increases their value through leveraging.

That’s it. No growth---just a galaxy of debt-instruments with odd-sounding names (CDOs, MBSs, CDSs, etc)  stacked precariously on top of each other. That’s what we call "wealth" in America.

It’s all smoke and mirrors. The financial system has decoupled from the productive elements of the economy and is now beginning to show disturbing signs of instability. That’s why there’s the big blow-off in the bond market. The halcyon days of supplying our armies, funding our markets and building our subprime “ownership society” empire on the backs of foreign creditors is over.  The stock market is headed for the landfill and housing is leading the way. Economic fundamentals can only be ignored for so long.
The problems began when Greenspan dropped interest rates to 1 per cent in 2003 for more than a year pumping trillions of low interest credit into the economy. This created the appearance of prosperity but it also inflated a massive equity bubble in housing which is now in its death throes. The Fed “rubber stamped” many of the “creative financing” scams which lowered lending standards and turned the subprime fiasco into a $1.5 trillion doomsday machine. Greenspan said this week that he hadn’t anticipated the real estate disaster.

The devastation in real estate is almost too vast to comprehend. The mortgage bubble is roughly $5.5 trillion, and yet, prices have just begun to fall. It’s a long way to the bottom and there’s bound to be plenty of bloodshed ahead. Two million homeowners will lose their homes. 151 mortgage lenders have already gone belly up. Many of the hedge funds—which are loaded with billions of dollars in “mortgage-backed” securities are struggling to stay alive. Perhaps the most shocking projection was made by Yale University Professor, Robert Schiller, who believes that home prices could decline as much as 50 per cent in some of the “hotter markets”. (Schiller’s book “Irrational Exuberance” predicted the dot.com bust before it took place.) The effects on the US economy would be considerable. If other factors come into play---like a stock market crash and a subsequent period of deflation---we could see housing prices descend 90 per cent as they did between 1928 and 1933.

It’s possible.
Typically, housing bubbles deflate very slowly, over a period of 5 to 10 years. Not this time. Credit problems in the broader market are speeding up the pace of the decline. The subprime sarcoma has spread to all loan categories and filtered into the banking system. This is forcing the banks to hoard reserves to cover their potential losses (from CDOs and mortgage-backed bonds “gone bad”). Now, even credit worthy applicants are being turned away on new mortgages. At the same time, “nearly half of borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages were not able to refinance their loans. That’s a major concern for policymakers as an estimated 2.5 million mortgages given to borrowers with weak credit will reset at higher rates by the end of next year.” (Associated Press)

Think about that. It’s no longer just a matter of 40 per cent of loan-types disappearing overnight (Subprime, Alt-A, piggyback, negative amortization, interest only etc). Even people with good credit are being rejected because the banks are hoarding capital. That suggests the banks are in dire straights and hiding losses that are kept off their balance sheets. (more on this later)
So, it’s harder to get a mortgage. And, if you already have one you may not be able to roll it over. This will greatly accelerate the rate of the housing crash. (In fact, the LA Business Journal reported on Sunday that home sales plunged 50 per cent in one month. We can expect to see similar numbers in all the hot spots.)

Dollar Woes

The troubles facing the dollar are as grave as those in housing. The stock market and the teetering hedge funds are counting on an interest rate cut, but they’ve ignored the effects it will have on the greenback. If Bernanke lowers rates, as everyone expects, the bottom could drop out of the dollar. We’re already seeing gold soar to new highs (above $700 per Ounce) That’s an indication of dollar-weakness and a potential sell-off of US Treasuries.  If Bernanke lowers rates, the greenback will nosedive.  
Author Gary Dorsch explains the potential hazards in his recent article, “Hopes for an Easier Fed Policy Boost the Euro and Copper”:

 “Interest rate differentials have played a key role in determining exchange rates. Since the ECB (European Central Bank) began its rate hike campaign in December 2005, the US dollar’s interest rate advantage over the Euro has narrowed from 240 basis points to as low as 70 basis points today. Thus, the Fed can only afford a small rate cut to bail out Wall Street bankers who hold toxic sub-prime debt and avoid tipping the dollar into a free-fall. But that might not be enough to prevent a housing led recession in the months ahead.”

After years of abuse under Greenspan--an $800 billion current account deficit, a $9 billion per month war, and a 13 per cent yearly increase in the money supply---the poor dollar has run out of wiggle-room. If the Fed slashes rates, the mighty greenback will be a dead duck.

Commercial Paper: What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You
Commercial paper is something that is rarely understood outside of the investor class. It is, however, a critical factor in keeping the markets operating smoothly.  “Commercial paper is highly-rated short-term notes that offer investors a safe haven investment with a yield slightly above certificates of deposit or government debt. Banks use the money to purchase longer-term investments such as corporate receivables, auto loans credit card debt, or mortgagees.” (Wall Street Journal 9-5-07)

Commercial paper has been vanishing at an alarming rate in the last month. $240 billion has been drained in just the last 3 weeks. (There is $2.2 trillion of commercial paper in circulation in the US) Because CP is “short term”, hundreds of billions of dollars need to roll over (be refinanced) regularly. CP is at the very heart of the credit crisis which has spread through the financial markets and it could result in a massive catastrophe. The large investment banks are in a panic---and that is probably an understatement. Consider this article in the UK Telegraph which provides an eye-popping summary of what is going on behind the scenes.
 U.K. Telegraph, “Banks Face 10-Day Debt Time Bomb”: “Britain's biggest banks could be forced to cough up as much as £70bn over the next 10 days, as the credit crisis that has seized the global financial system sparks a fresh wave of chaos.

 “Almost 20 per cent of the short-term money market loans issued by European banks are due to mature between September 11 and September 19. Senior bankers fear that they will have to refinance almost all of these debts with funds from their own coffers, putting a further strain on bank balance sheets.

“Tens of billions of pounds of these commercial paper loans have already built up in the financial system, because fear-ridden investors no longer want to buy them. Roughly £23bn of these loans expire on September 17 alone.

“Fears of this impending call on bank credit lines are the true reason that lending between banks has ground to a halt, according to senior money market sources.

“Banks have been stockpiling cash in preparation for this ‘double rollover’ week, which sees quarterly loans expire alongside shorter term debts - exacerbating a problem that lies at the heart of the credit crisis.” (UK Telegraph)
   
Fortunately, the British still have a few newspapers—like the Telegraph-- that still report the news. That is not the case in the US.

There’s roughly $1.3 trillion in “asset-backed” commercial paper filtering through American markets. These are the notes that are connected to mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) that no one wants and which have NO MARKET VALUE. They are referred to as “toxic waste”. (No one is buying anything remotely connected to real estate CDOs)
  
Hundreds of billions of dollars of CP has been issued through SIVs (structured investment vehicles) and “conduits” which are affiliates (subsidiaries) of the large banks. The banks have kept these operations hidden from the public, but now they are in the spotlight because they cannot meet their obligations and are stuck with billions of CP that they cannot refinance. (The reader may recall that Enron kept similar “off balance sheets” operations secret from the public before they declared bankruptcy)
  
The banks are now forced to assume responsibility for the commercial paper held by their affiliates, which means that they need sufficient capitalization to cover the losses.
  
Sound confusing? Don’t give up, yet!

The bottom line is this: The banks are responsible for hundreds of billions of dollars in commercial paper that probably won’t be refinanced. It is beginning to look like they don’t have the reserves to cover their losses.

That’s why we continue to believe that the banks are in trouble.

According to the Wall Street Journal:


So do the banks and their shareholders have nothing to worry about? Not quite….Negligible losses in August were enough to force the banks to run to the authorities for help. Regulators may decide that the best way to prevent a recurrence is to require banks to hold more capital. They might even limit some types of transactions. Such moves might be good for the economy, but would reduce the bank’s returns on equity. (“Banks Seem Fine—For Now”, WSJ, 9-8-07)

  
Read carefully and I think you will agree with me that the WSJ is “tipping its hand” and suggesting that the banks needed “more capital” even after “negligible losses.” The predicament is much more serious now.

Bank troubles are never minor. That’s why there has been so much effort put into covering up the real source of the problem. When people lose their confidence in the banks, they lose their confidence in the system. That ends up inciting social turmoil.
Don’t think they’re not aware of that at the White House.

The Likelihood of a Hard Landing

Notwithstanding the imminent shakeup at the major investment banks, the path ahead is poorly lit and full of potholes. The reckless policies of the last 7 years have edged us ever-closer to the inevitable day of reckoning. Professor Nouriel Roubini summed it up best in a recent blog-entry, “The Coming US Hard Landing”:

 
The forthcoming easing of monetary policy by the Fed will not rescue the economy and financial markets from a hard landing as it will be too little too late. The Fed underestimated the severity of the housing recession, its spillovers to other sectors, and the contagion of the sub-prime carnage to other mortgage markets and to the overall financial markets. Fed easing will not work for several reasons: the Fed will cut rate too slowly as it is still worried about inflation and about the moral hazard of perceptions of rescuing reckless investors and lenders; we have a glut of housing, autos and consumer durables and the demand for these goods becomes relatively interest rate insensitive once you have a glut that requires years to work out; serious credit problems and insolvencies cannot be resolved by monetary policy alone; and the liquidity injections by the Fed are being stashed in excess reserves by the banks, not re-lent to the parts of the financial markets where the liquidity crunch is most severe and worsening. The Fed provided liquidity to banking institutions but it cannot provide direct liquidity to hedge funds, investment banks, other highly leveraged institutions and parts of the credit markets – such as asset backed commercial paper – where the crunch is severe. Thus, the liquidity crunch in most credit markets remains severe, even in the usually most liquid interbank markets.(Nouriel Roubini's Blog)

There are no quick-fixes or “silver bullets” as Bush likes to say. It’ll take years to dig our way out of this mess. In the meantime, there’s little to look forward to except the steady weakening of the dollar, the persistent decline in housing and the looming police-state apparatus that’s supposed to keep us in line while the soup kitchens open.

Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at: fergiewhitney@msn.com


 

 

 

 

 





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