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Today's
Stories
August 14-16, 2009
Jeffrey St. Clair
The Fall of the House of Stanford
August 13, 2009
Eduardo Galeano
I Hate to Bother You
Joanne Mariner
Letting Cheney Off the Hook
Michael Donnelly
Burning Forests for Electricity
Norman Solomon
When the Dead Have No Say
Russell Mokhiber
Boycott Whole Foods
Tim Wise
Sick Heil! The Hitlerizing of Obama
Brian M. Downing
Succession and the Pakistani Taliban
Dave Lindorff
Single-Payer and Medicare
David Manning / Miriam Cotton:
Iran Versus Honduras: a Subtle Difference
Martha Rosenberg
John Hughes, Gone With Only 59 Candles
Website of the Day
Congress Can't Find Their As-teroids
August 12, 2009
Michael J. Watts
Nigeria on the Brink
Bouthaina Shaaban
Where are the Arabs to Stand Up for the Hanoun and Ghawi Families?
Ricardo Alarcón
The Cuban Five: Justice in Wonderland
Binoy Kampmark
Terror Australis
Paul Craig Roberts
Concocting the Appearance of Recovery
Alan Farago
Going Down Absurd:
the Future of Florida Bay
James Ridgeway
Ghostwriting Your Meds
Dave Lindorff
10 Questions to Ask If You Find Yourself at an ObamaCare Town Hall Meeting
David Macaray
Labor and the Conventional Wisdom
Niranjan Ramakrishnan
The Assimilation of Niranjan Ramakrishnan
Website of the Day
A Petition in Support of Janice Harper
August 11, 2009
Ricardo Alarcón
Forbidden Heroes
Marshall Auerback
America's Biggest Economic Problem?
Reza Yavari
Inside Iran's Most Infamous Prison
Winslow T. Wheeler
How Congress Pays For Its Pork
Tim Wise
Red-Baiting and Racism
Uri Avnery
A Moral Person
Deepak Tripathi
Getting Away With Torture
Greg Moses
Time to Plan for the Worst
Benjamin Dangl
Boycotting Big Beer
Dave Lindorff
Hecklers Unite! Why Aren't Progressives Disrupting ObamaCare Town Halls?
Website of the Day
What Bush Told Chirac About the Iraq War
August 10, 2009
David Price
Trial by FBI Investigation
Mike Whitney
There is No Recession; It's a Planned Demolition
Alan Farago
Seeds of Destruction: How the National Economy was Wrecked by the Politics of Deregulation in Florida
Conn Hallinan
The Honduran Coup: a U.S. Connection
Russell Mokhiber
Health Care: In Defense of Disruption
Paul Krassner
The Mystery Behind the Manson Murders
Sousan Hammad
Orgy of the Dead: the 2009 Fatah Conference
Jonathan Cook
Israeli School Apartheid
Ira Glunts
Netanyahu's Sister-in-Law Detained by Israeli Police; Calls Evictions an Unjustified Folly
George Wuerthner
Dead Tree Hysteria
Website of the Day
Conyers: ObamaCare is Crap
August 7 - 9, 2009
Alexander Cockburn
It Pays to Have a Nuke
Mike Whitney
Economy on a Scaffold
Elaine C. Hagopian
Obama's Israel Albatross
Carl Ginsburg
RX For Healthcare
Miguel Tinker Salas
Honduras is Only Part of the Story: the Conservative Counter-Attack in Latin America
Saul Landau
The Kidney Broker and the Money Laundering Rabbis
John Ross
The Mexican Genome: Big Science in the Service of Indian Genocide?
Anthony DiMaggio Obama and the Israel Lobby: Origins of Power
John Stanton
Expanding Human Terrain Systems?
Christopher Brauchli Legal Absurdities: Outing Three Strikes
Wajahat Ali
A Muslim American Hero: an Interview with Dave Eggers on "Zeitoun"
Ron Jacobs
As Long as the Wars Continue, We Must Resist Them
Franklin Lamb
Sunday Morning on the Dunes: Cleaning "Free Gaza Beach"
Bruce E. Levine
Protect Us From Our Friends
Michael Winship
Neighborhood Watch for Planet Earth
David Macaray
Glimmers of Hope for Labor?
Stephen Fleischman
Suicide Squad
Robert Bryce
Unplugging the Next Big Thing: the Hype Over Electric Cars
Robert Dodge, MD: Hiroshima and Nagasaki Remembered
Mark Seth Lender
The Message of the Glossy Ibis
David Yearsley
Vaucanson's Faun and the Duck in the Attic
Ben Sonnenberg
Chris Fuller's Brilliant Debut
Lorenzo Wolff
When Music's the Character
Poets' Basement
Dominguez and Corseri
Website of the Weekend
Warren Buffett's Betrayal
August 6, 2009
Ishmael Reed
Let's All Have a Beer
Paul Craig Roberts
The Expiring Economy
William Blum Assassinations and Coups: Keeping Track of the Empire's Crimes
Michael Donnelly
Rod Coronado: the Hardest Working Man in Animal Rights "Terrorism"
Jonathan Cook
Rabbis Ban Marriage for Israeli "Untouchables"
Dave Lindorff
The Health Care Reform Sell-Out
Ellen Brown
The Public Option in Banking
Website of the Day
Ellsberg on Hiroshima
August 5, 2009
Dedrick Muhammad /
Barbara Ehrenreich
The Destruction of the Black Middle Class
Norman Solomon
The Incredible, Shrinking Health Care Plan
William Blum
The Myths of Afghanistan: Past and Present
Gareth Porter
The ISI and the Taliban: US Officials Are Protecting Pakistani Aid to Taliban
Mary Lynn Cramer
The Myth of Medicare for All
Jim Goodman
Obama Needs to Take a Stand on Trade
Nadia Hijab
Playing From Strength in the Middle East
Gretchen Kroth
Guatemala's Garbage Dump Education System
Steve Macek /
Scott Sanders
Privatizing the Airwaves
Sarah Lazare
Inside G.I. Resistance
Website of the Day
The Locavore Myth
August 4, 2009
Mike Whitney
Bernanke's Shell Game
Dave Lindorff
The Recession Isn't Over, By a Long Shot
Patrick Cockburn
Did British Bomb Attacks in Iran Provoke Hostage Crisis?
Jonathan Cook
Israel's Campaign to Silence Human Rights Groups
Jeff Sher
Making a Mess of Health Care Reform
Dean Baker
Why Don't We Globalize Health Care?
Andy Worthington
Gitmo as Hotel California
Uri Avnery
A Jeremiad
Mark Weisbrot
U.S.-Brokered Mediation in Honduras Has Failed
Alvaro Huerta
Hold That Dustbin! So Much for the "End of Racism"
Website of the Day
Pentagon to Ban Facebook and Twitter?
August 3, 2009
Pam Martens
Millions of Americans Pushed Into No-Law System by Colluding Banks
Anthony DiMaggio
Media Backlash:
Obama and the Settlements
Udi Aloni
And Who Shall I Say is Calling? A Plea to Leonard Cohen
Mike Roselle
See the Mountains of WestVirginia ... Before They're Blown Up!
Dr. Susan Block
Beat It!
Sex, Death and Michael Jackson
Roy Bourgeois / Margaret Knapke
School of Coups
Joe Bageant
A Yard Sale in Chernobyl
Dina Jadallah
Hiding the State
Dave Lindorff
Of Blue Dogs and Jellyfish
Martha Rosenberg
Grand Closings in Evanston: How the Recession is Hitting Illinois
Website of the Day
Why We Can't "Afford" Health Care
July 31 - August 2, 2009
Alexander Cockburn
The Biden and Clinton Mutinies
Gabriel Kolko
Searching For Enemies
John Prados
The Intelligence Oversight Mess
Joe Bageant
The Bastards Never Die
Tim Wise
Rationalizing Racial Oppression
Carl Ginsburg
Frist First: Follow the Money (and Find the Plump Heart of "Health Care")
Michael Fox
The Honduran Coup as Overture
John Lindsay-Poland
Revamping Plan Colombia
Michael Winship
Pay-to-Play: Washington's Sport of Kings
Rev. William Alberts
White Men Can Jump ... to Conclusions
Andy Worthington
Judge Orders Release of Tortured Gitmo Prisoner
Steve Breyman
Counting the Unemployed
Cyrus Bina
Racism, Class and Profiling
Missy Beattie
Promises Ignored
Ron Jacobs
Into the Vapid:
Consuming the Cultural Product
Willie L. Pelote, Sr.
Party of Concessions:
Democrats Never Learn
Lucia Alvarez
Fall of the House of Kirchner?
Return of the Right in Argentina
Dave Lindorff
David Brooks' White Guy Nightmare
Lawrence R. Velvel
Madoff: What Should be Done Now?
Omar Barghouti /
Sid Shniad
United for Freedom and Universal Justice
James L. Secor
The Name of the Game is Wipe-Out
Belén Fernández
Zelaya in Nicaragua: Has Another Constitution Been Violated?
Jeffrey St. Clair
Frank Lloyd Wright in Hollywood: the Ennis House as Imperial Ruin
David Yearsley
Beauty in Dark Places: Berlin's Olympic Stadium
Brian J. Foley
Pre-Eating: a Threat to Restaurants Everywhere
Alan Cabal
Onward, Into the Fog: Thomas Pynchon's
"Inherent Vice"
Kim Nicolini
The Way War Feels
Lorenzo Wolff
The Way It Felt the First Time: the Jump Rope Magic of the Shangri-Las
Poets' Basement
Four Poems From the Chinese
Website of the Weekend
Obama's Ex-Doc Knocks ObamaCare
July 30, 2009
Patrick Cockburn
Victims of a Covert Tit-for-Tat War
Gareth Porter
Afghanistan's US-Backed Child-Raping Police
Saul Landau
Summer of Denial
Greg Grandin
Honduran Coup Over?
Diane Farsetta
Pentagon Pundits Get a Pass
Stephen Soldz
The King Case, the APA and the Missing Ethics Investigation
Alan Farago
Learning How to Survive in a Depression From "Weeds"
David Macaray
Cops and Labor Unions
Mike Howells /
Jay Arena
Volunteerism Will Not Rebuild the Gulf Coast
Christopher Brauchli
Oatmeal Envy
Website of the Day
Changing the SOFA
July 29, 2009
Carl Ginsburg
Our Crisis, Their Gain
Clifton Ross
From Tegucigalpa to El Paraiso: a Voyage From Curfew to State of Siege
Paul Craig Roberts
How Fake is the "Recovery"?
Franklin C. Spinney
Winning Hearts and Minds, Pentagon Style
James Bovard Lackawanna Six: Bogus Charges and Martial Law
Anthony DiMaggio
Health Care, the Media and Public Opinion
Bouthaina Shaaban
How Will Arabs Wake Up?
Greg Moses
A Catch and Trade Policy for Labor Costs
Wajahat Ali
No Racism in Obama's Post-Race America?
Gary Leupp
Beer Will Not Solve This
Ayesha Ijaz Khan
Musharraf, Imran Khan and Overseas Pakistanis
Website of the Day
Why Single-Payer Gets No Respect
July 28, 2009
Jean Bricmont
Bombing for a Juster World?
Uri Avnery
Obama, Netanyahu and the Settlements
Dean Baker
Right to Rent: a Remedy for the Foreclosure Crisis
Heather Gray
Stupid Cop Tricks: Driving Too Close to a White Female and Other Episodes in Racist Policing
Jonathan Cook
Can an "Arab Soul" Yearn for Israel's Anthem?
Winslow T. Wheeler
Beyond the F-22: the Future of Pentagon Reform
Belén Fernández
Thomas Friedman Does Afghanistan
Carl Finamore
The Hotel Workers' Kickass Local 2
Eli Jelly-Schapiro
Striking the World Cup
Harvey Wasserman
We All Stand Before Peltier's Parole Board
Website of the Day
Behind the Wheel
July 27, 2009
Ishmael Reed
Gates: Post-Race Scholar Yells Racism
Patrick Cockburn
Elections Shake Kurdistan
Roger Burbach
Hillary and Obama Nix Change in Honduras
Steve Breyman
Bomber Joe and Russia:
Why is Biden Channeling Cheney?
Ramzy Kysia
Gaza: On the Right of Resistance
Stephen Soldz
Will the American Psychological Association Renounce the Nuremberg Defense?
Raymond J. Lawrence
Sexual Hocus Pocus in the Episcopal Church
Greg Moses
The Color Line is Black
Binoy Kampmark
Swine Flu Panic
Kim Ives
Lavalas and Haiti's Student Union Unite
Website of the Day
Meet the Paid Assassins of Health Care
July 24-26, 2009
Alexander Cockburn
"A Damned Murder, Inc."
Clifton Ross
Surreal Honduras
Patrick Cockburn
Party of "Change" Challenges Old Guard in Kurdistan
William Polk
Report Card on Obama From a New Frontiersman
David Sterritt
Screening the Politics Out of the Iraq War
Ray McGovern
Hooded in Bush's Hood
David Lindorff
Cops Gone Wild
Hannah Mermelstein
"The War is With the Arabs"
Carl Ginsburg
The Actually Existing Health Care System
Helen Redmond
The Selling of Single-Payer Features
John Ross
The Song of the Guerrilla
Bill Simpich
Fair Play for Cuba and the Cuban Revolution
Mark Weisbrot
Learning From China on How to Beat the Recession
Lee Sustar
U.S. Labor in Crisis
David Macaray
Union Workers Forced to Accept Massive Cuts
Felipe Matsunaga
Obama's Slow (and Familiar) Dance With Cuba
Sara Mann
Why Health Care Will Kill My TV
Martha Rosenberg
Which is Worse? Germs in Our Food or the Antibiotics That Kill Them?
Missy Beattie
Cha-ching Culture
David Ker Thomson
Empty Nest: a Natural History of Now
Ron Jacobs
United4Iran, a Footnote
Stephen Martin
The Crying of Lots 1 Thru 50
David Yearsley
Psst, I Show You a Feelthy Gluck
Gilad Atzmon
Bruno: a Glimpse Into Zionism?
Kim Nicolini
Guilty Laughter in the Dark: Seeing Brüno Twice
Poets' Basement
Kakak and McLellan
Website of the Weekend
Dead Prez: Summertime
July 23, 2009
Jeffrey St. Clair
The Masters of Perfidy: AIG and the System
Saul Landau /
Nelson Valdés
Hypocrisy and the Honduran Coup: Term Limits Only Apply When Governments Help People
Jonathan Cook
The Reality of Israel's "Open" Jerusalem
Nadia Hijab
Israeli Warships in the Red Sea
Dave Lindorff
Living in a Police State: the Gates Incident
Laura Carlsen
21st Century Coups d'Etat
Steve Breyman
Bankers Beware?
Ellen Brown
How California Could Turn Its IOUs Into Dollars
Norman Solomon
Spinning Health Care
Jorge Mariscal
Youth Activists Demand Military-Free Schools
Website of the Day
Copy-Editing Sarah Palin
July 22, 2009
Bernard Chazelle
How to Argue Against Torture
Nikolas Kozloff
The Coup and the U.S. Airbase in Honduras
Carl Ginsburg
The Recovery, Phase Two
Clifton Ross
Back to the Future? Return to El Salvador
Anthony DiMaggio
Health Care, Media and the Case for Socialized Medicine
Michael Donnelly
The Whoppers Behind WOPR
Nadia Hijab
Memoirs of a Lost Arab World
Dedrick Muhammad
Structural Inequality: News Not Fit to Print?
Charles Thomson
Cronyism at the Tate
Alan Farago
Ted Williams and the Florida Keys
Website of the Day
Himmelstein: Howard Dean is a Liar
July 21, 2009
Sasan Fayazmanesh
The Iranian Election and Its Aftermath
Uri Avnery
Breaking the Silence on Israeli War Crimes
Dean Baker
Séance on Wall Street
Jonathan Cook
Team Twitter: Israel's Internet War
Dave Lindorff
Saving Private Bergdahl
Andy Worthington
Interrogating the Uighurs
David Macaray
Heat, Dust and OSHA
Carl Finamore
The Deferential Party
Harvey Wasserman
Cronkite and Three Mile Island
Walter Brasch
The Marie Antoinettes of Health Care
Website of the Day
Linebaugh: Magna Carta and the Commons
July 20, 2009
Pam Martens
Judicial Apartheid
Nikolas Kozloff
Honduras and the Big Stick: Obama's Bullish Behavoir in Latin America
Paul Craig Roberts
Threatening Iran
Deepak Tripathi
Obama's Policy on China and Iran
Ira Glunts
Netanyahu's Time Bomb: Building in the Vineyard of the Mufti
P. Sainath
Put Your Money Down, Boys
Binoy Kampmark
The Moon Landing and the Cold War
Stephen Fleischman
The First Anchorman
Norman Solomon
Cronkite and Vietnam: Beyond the Hype
Andy Worthington
Predictable Chaos as Gitmo Trials Resume
Ron Jacobs
Out of the Haze, Into the Darkness:
Recalling 1979
Website of the Day
Why Publishing Can't be Saved (as it is)
July 17-19, 2009
Alexander Cockburn
"Watch What We Do, Not What We Say"
Nikolas Kozloff
Chiquita in Latin America: From Arbenz to Zelaya
Joanne Mariner
CIA Apples: Bad at the Top of the Tree
Joe Bageant
America's White Underclass
Jonathan Cook
Israeli Road Signs: Wiping Arabic Names Off the Map
Saul Landau
Why So Much Sympathy for Madoff's Dupes and So Little for the Poor?
John Ross
Jurassic Fallout in Mexico
Sue Sturgis
Senator Sessions, Race and Impartiality
Anita Sinha /
Daniel Farbman
The Ricci Case and the Myth of Special Treatment
Peter Morici
Obama's Donut Economics
Pervez Hoodbhoy
Whither Pakistan? A Five-Year Forecast
Ramzy Baroud
Gaza and the Language of Power
Greg Moses
The Real Demand Crisis
Kia Mistilis
The Niger Delta Crisis
Missy Beattie
The Placebo President
David Ker Thomson
How Not to See: Things to Tell Your Eyeballs
James G. Abourezk
Evil Spirits: the Booze Strip in Indian Country
Paul Richards
Why Does Jon Tester Want to Log Wild Montana?
Dave Lindorff
Dark Days for Working People (With Three Small Rays of Light)
Marc Levy
Just Like Hanoi Jane
Matt Siegfried
The Good War Goes Hot
Stephen Martin
Panopticon Blues
Ben Sonnenberg
Sembène's Faat Kiné
David Macaray
Casablanca: When Melodrama Trumped History
Charles R. Larson
A Pakistani, Victorian Novel Celebrating Women
David Yearsley
That's Women for You: Abbas Kiarostami's Così
Lorenzo Wolff
Death Rattle and Roll: the Sound From England's Gutters
Poets' Basement
Payne, Anderson and Williams
Website of the Weekend
Hitler Learns of Sarah Palin's Resignation
July 16, 2009
Paul Craig Roberts
What Economy?
Afshin Rattansi Iranian Planes and the Hidden Toll of Economic Sanctions
Gregory V. Button
The Search for Environmental Justice in Perry County, Alabama
Evan Knappenberger
Profile of a Deserter
Michelle Bollinger
Why is Leonard Peltier Still in Prison?
Russell Mokhiber
White House to ABC News:
No Obama Single-Payer Doc
Belén Fernández
Iranian Penetration, Oh My!
Alice Walker
What is Torture Like? A Letter to Obama
Nicholas Dearden
Paying the Climate Debt: the G-8's Troubling Model
Albert Osueke
Sotomayor and the Identity Mountain
Website of the Day
Sotomayor for the Prosecution
July 15, 2009
Manuel Garcia, Jr.
The Assassination Bureau
Vijay Prashad
A Political Recession
Dean Baker
Stimulus Arithmetic
Ray McGovern
Cheney Sweating Bullets
Jonathan Cook
Jenin's Model of "Economic Peace"
David Rosen
Shouts From the Gallery: the Sotomayor Hearings and the Culture Wars
Eric Walberg
Uighurs vs. Afghans: a Study in Contrast
Greg Moses
Three Dimensions of a Complete Stimulus Plan
Sousan Hammad
Decolonizing Israel
Binoy Kampmark
The Trial of Charles Taylor
Tracy McLellan
The Story of My Arrest
Website of the Day
11 Days in Saudi Gitmo
July 14, 2009
Eamonn McCann
The Emperors of Bombast: Bono, U2 and the Crisis of World Capitalism
Joanne Mariner
Obama's New Euphemism
Franklin Spinney
The Taliban Rope-a-Dope
Steve Heilig
Walking Mount Tam: an Interview with Gary Snyder
Ali Abunimah
Hamas' Choice
Dave Lindorff
The End of "Nice" Health Care Reform
Nikolas Kozloff
The Politics of Destabilization: McCain and Honduras
Ellen Brown
From Golden State to Subprime State
Alice Slater
How US Missile Defense Plans Sabotaged Nuclear Disarmament Talks With Russia
Ron Jacobs
Protest U.S. Aggression
Joe Allen
The Fight to Save James Hickman in Jim Crow-Style Chicago
Website of the Day
Mel Brooks Does the French Revolution
July 13, 2009
Uri Avnery
The Essence of the Regime
Mike Whitney
The Deflating Economy
P. Sainath
How the World Depression Hits Orissa
Gareth Porter
A US / Iraq Conflict on Iran
Paul Moore
Rap in the Streets, Rap in the Suites
Tim Wise
Off the Deep End: Private Clubs, Public Prejudice
Andy Worthington Former Insider Shatters Credibility of Military Commissions
David Macaray
Cartoon Voices:
Serf's Up in Hollywood
Cal Winslow
The Healthcare Worker War
Niranjan Ramakrishnan
Spring in the Time of Obama
Website of the Day
Washington's Deep Game with China
July 10-12, 2009
Alexander Cockburn
Obama's Biden Problem
José Pertierra
The Cuban Five: a Cold War Case in a Post-Cold War World
John Ross
After the Honduran Coup
Conn Hallinan
The Settlements and the Quartet
Nikolas Kozloff
C Street Band: Sex Scandals, Moral Hypocrisy and the Far Right Agenda in Latin America
Clifton Ross /
Marcy Rein
U.S. and Honduras:
Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Good Neighbor
Carl Ginsburg
Summers' Clouded Crystal Ball
Michael Neumann
Say It Loud, Say It Proud: There is No God!
Gilad Atzmon
The Left and Islam:
Thinking Outside of the Secular Box
Jeffrey St. Clair
The Parable of the Golden Parachute
Ellen Hodgson Brown
California Dreamin': How the State Can Beat Its Budget Woes
Jim Goodman
Rural America Needs More Than Listening Sessions
Christopher Bickerton
Europe's New Politics of Hard Times
Wendell Potter
Health Care Industry Adopts Tobacco Lobby's Tactics
Dave Lindorff
CIA Lies: Why Isn't Congress in Open Revolt?
David Ker Thomson
Switchbacking Toward Bastille Day
Anthony DiMaggio
The Michael Jackson Feeding Frenzy
Raymond Lawrence
Michael Jackson as Sexual Pervert: the Calumnies of Peter King
Walid El Houri
Neda and Marwa: a Tale of Two Murdered Women
Stephanie Westbrook
Yes, We Camp
Roger Gaess
The Shades of Highgate Cemetery
David Yearsley
Tara, America's Dream House
Kim Nicolini
Caution: Men at Work, Robbing Banks
Poets' Basement
Five Poems From the Japanese
Website of the Weekend
Free Tiga and Hugh!
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Weekend Edition
August 14-16, 2009
Green Shoots or Scorched Earth?
Bulletins From Clunkerville
By MIKE WHITNEY
Is the economy really recovering or is it all just hype?
Here's what we know. The Fed doesn't drop rates to zero unless its facing a 5 alarm fire and needs to pull out all the stops. The idea is to flood the markets with liquidity in order to avoid a complete financial meltdown. It's a last-ditch maneuver and the Fed does not take it lightly.
The Fed initiated its zero interest rate policy, ZIRP, eight months ago (December 16 2008) and hasn't raised rates since. In the meantime, Fed chair Ben Bernanke has pumped huge amounts of money into the financial system using thoroughly-untested and unconventional means. No one knows whether Bernanke can roll up his multi-trillion dollar lending facilities or not (and avoid Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation) because no one has ever created similar programs. It's all "make-it-up-as-you-go" policymaking. What we do know, however, is that the Fed intends to keep rates at rock-bottom for the foreseeable future, which means that the lights are all still blinking red.
Here's an excerpt from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday:
"The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities. To promote a smooth transition in markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are completed, the Committee has decided to gradually slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted."
Translation: The economy is still getting battered and the Fed will keep rates at zero until the storm passes. Bernanke will continue to purchase boatloads of Fannie and Freddie mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to avoid an even-more precipitous decline in housing prices. The Fed will also purchase $300 billion in US Treasuries (monetization) in an effort to prime the pump and keep long-term interest rates artificially low. (Note: The Fed is only suspending its monetization program--Treasury buy-backs--because the dollar dropped to a dangerous support level, below which lies the abyss. Thus, Bernanke's announcement is not a sign of confidence in the fictional "recovery", but fear of a "disorderly unwind" of the dollar.)
On balance, the Fed's statement is an expression of desperation, not optimism. Bernanke would like nothing more than to prove to his critics wrong by raising rates and shutting down a couple lending facilities. But he has no choice. The situation is dire. Just imagine where housing prices would be today if Bernanke hadn't bought $1 trillion of mortgage-backed securities? Housing would be crashing even harder than it is already.
The Fed is in a pitch-battle with deflation, and it's losing ground fast. If that wasn't true, then Bernanke would simply raise rates .50 basis points and soak up some of the excess liquidity he's been spraying everywhere. But he can't, because if he did, the equities markets would plummet 500 points in an afternoon and the financial system would be tossed back on the rocks. Bernanke's liquidity is the only thing keeping the economy vanishing into a deflationary black hole.
The economy is still on life-support and the "green shoots" storyline is pure fiction. The financial system will be on a drip-feed from the Fed for years to come. Maybe forever. Things aren't better; they're worse. Look at the facts.
There were 1.9 million foreclosures in 2009 in the first six months, and there will be another 1.5 before the end of the year. Is that better?
According to Bloomberg:
"A glut of unsold homes is also pushing down prices. The 3.8 million homes for sale in June would take 9.4 months to sell at the current pace of transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors. The inventory turnover rate averaged 4.5 months in the six years from 2000 to 2005.....More than 18.7 million homes, including foreclosures, residences for sale and vacation homes, stood vacant in the U.S. during the second quarter....Total home sales fell 23.7 percent in June versus a year earlier." (Bloomberg)
Bloated supply, falling prices, record foreclosures, flagging demand--and according to Deutsche Bank--48 percent of all mortgages will be underwater by 2011. It's all bad.
Here's another clip from Bloomberg today 8-12-09:
"Home price declines in the U.S. accelerated in the second quarter, dropping by a record 15.6 percent from a year earlier, as foreclosures weighed on values.
The median price of an existing single-family home dropped to $174,100, the most in records dating to 1979, the National Association of Realtors said today.
‘I don’t think we’re at a bottom yet in home prices,’ said Scott Anderson, a senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. ‘There’s also a pretty big shadow supply of houses. People are kind of waiting for the bottom but there’s a pent up supply out there.”...Home prices are tumbling even as mortgage rates remain near all-time lows. The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed home loan was to 5.22 percent last week, down from 5.25 percent the prior week.’" (Bloomberg)
The decline in housing prices is accelerating, not slowing down. The historic collapse in real estate is ongoing and it is wiping out trillions in homeowner equity making it increasingly difficult for consumers to borrow on the diminishing value of their collateral. This is why foreclosures, defaults and personal bankruptcies are soaring. According to the American Bankruptcy Institute: consumer bankruptcy filings reached 126,434 in July, a 34.3 per cent increase year over year, and a 8.7 per cent increase sequentially (116,365 in June). July's number is the highest monthly total since the October 2005 bankruptcy reform aka the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act.)
This is why households and consumers can no longer spend as much as they had before the crisis. Credit lines are being pared back; personal savings are rising, and GDP (excluding fiscal stimulus) is shrinking.
Every one of the 3.5 million foreclosures represents hundreds of thousands of dollars the banks will never recoup. That's why the rate of bank failures will be much greater than current estimates. The banks are facing a triple-whammy; soaring foreclosures, tumbling asset prices, and a meltdown in commercial real estate. The combo has created a gigantic capital hole which is forcing the banks to slow lend even to applicants with flawless credit. The Fed has built up excess bank reserves by $800 billion, but it hasn't made a bit of difference. They banks are still not able to lend.
The uptick in housing last month reflects seasonal changes and a shifting of pain from the low end of the market to higher priced homes; nothing more. Homes that are priced over $1 million are now sitting on the market for 20 months; a lifetime in real estate parlance. High-end neighborhoods have turned into leper colonies. Zero interest; zero traffic. Expect a crash this year.
Now take a look at this from CNBC's Diana Olick:
"The number of homes listed officially on the market, while still at historically high levels, might be only the tip of the iceberg," said Stan Humphries, chief economist at real estate website Zillow.com in Seattle, Washington.
“According to Zillow's latest Homeowner Confidence Survey, 12 per cent of homeowners said they would be ‘very likely’ to put their home on the market in the next 12 months if they saw signs of a real estate market turnaround, 8 percent said ‘likely,’ while 12 percent said ‘somewhat likely.’
Survey results could translate into around 20 million homeowners trying to sell their homes, a startling number given that the Census bureau indicates there are 93 million U.S. houses, condos and co-ops, Humphries said.
“According to the National Association of Realtors, the market is currently on track to sell 4.89 million homes annually.
"’At this pace, it would take about four years to run through this amount of backlogged inventory,’ he said.
"’Shadow inventory has the potential to give us another leg down on home prices during the second half of the year,’ said Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics in Danville, California. (Diana Olick, "Shadow inventory lurks over US housing recovery" CNBC)
The banks are using all types of accounting tricks to hide the real losses or the true value of downgraded assets. The only difference between a common crook and a commercial banker is a well-paid accountant.
The banking system is broken and it’s only going to get worse as the hammer comes down on the commercial real estate market. The Fed and Treasury are already working out the details for another stealth bailout that they'll initiate without Congress's approval. It's all very hush-hush. The plan will involve more mega-leveraging of government liabilities. Bernanke has appointed himself the de facto Czar of Hedge Fund Nation, Clunkerville USA. An article in this week's Financial Times further illustrates how the Fed has transformed the economy into a riverboat casino:
"The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is aggressively hiring traders as its seeks to manage its burgeoning securities holdings, making the central bank one of Wall Street's most active recruiters of financial talent.
“The Fed, which says that most of its new recruits come from private sector financial firms, is hiring employees as many banks, rating agencies, hedge funds and private equity groups shed staff. New York city officials recently estimated that the sector's woes would lead to a loss of up to 140,000 jobs.
“The Fed's need for more traders is a direct consequence of the central bank's efforts to keep credit flowing through the US economy. The Fed has been buying fixed-income securities at such a rate that its assets have more than doubled to $2,000bn in the past year, leading the central bank to conclude that it needs more people to monitor the markets and to manage its credit risks." (Financial Times, "NY Fed in hiring spree as assets soar", Aline van Duyn)
Can you believe it? The Fed is drafting a gaggle of professional speculators just to keep all its balls in the air. What a joke. This isn't a recovery; it's a sit-com. Here's Warren Buffett summing it up on CNBC:
"I get figures on 70-odd businesses, a lot of them daily. Everything that I see about the economy is that we've had no bounce. The financial system was really where the crisis was last September and October, and that's been surmounted and that's enormously important. But in terms of the economy coming back, it takes a while.... I said the economy would be in a shambles this year and probably well beyond. I'm afraid that's true."
"The economy is in a shambles". That's from the horse's mouth. Inventories are down 11 per cent year-over-year, durable goods are down 10.4 per cent y-o-y, industrial capacity is at record lows, manufacturing is still contracting, housing is in the tank, shipping and rail freight are scraping the bottom, retail is in a long-term funk, and--according to Krugman--the slight dip in unemployment was a statistical anomaly. Here's Bob Herbert's great summary of the unemployment data:
"Some 247,000 jobs were lost in July, a number that under ordinary circumstances would send a shudder through the country. It was the smallest monthly loss of jobs since last summer. And for that reason, it was seen as a hopeful sign. The official monthly unemployment rate ticked down from 9.5 percent to 9.4 percent....The country has lost a crippling 6.7 million jobs since the Great Recession began in December 2007...
“The percentage of young American men who are actually working is the lowest it has been in the 61 years of record-keeping, according to the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University in Boston. Only 65 of every 100 men aged 20 through 24 years old were working on any given day in the first six months of this year. In the age group 25 through 34 years old, traditionally a prime age range for getting married and starting a family, just 81 of 100 men were employed.... The numbers are beyond scary; they’re catastrophic.
“This should be the biggest story in the United States. When joblessness reaches these kinds of extremes, it doesn’t just damage individual families; it corrodes entire communities, fosters a sense of hopelessness and leads to disorder....
“A truer picture of the employment crisis emerges when you combine the number of people who are officially counted as jobless with those who are working part time because they can’t find full-time work and those in the so-called labor market reserve — people who are not actively looking for work (because they have become discouraged, for example) but would take a job if one became available....The tally from those three categories is a mind-boggling 30 million Americans — 19 percent of the overall work force.
“This is, by far, the nation’s biggest problem and should be its No. 1 priority." ("A Scary Reality" Bob Herbert, New York Times)
Sorry, Bob, the media has no time for unemployment news. It tends to undermine the positive vibes from green shoots stories.
The stock market rally has made it harder for people to see the truth. But the facts haven't changed. Deflation is setting in across all sectors and the economy has reset at a lower rate of economic activity. Housing prices are falling, consumer spending is slowing, layoffs are rising, and demand is getting weaker. That means growth will be sub-par for the foreseeable future. Here's an excerpt from a speech given by San Francisco Fed Janet Yellen drawing the same conclusion:
"I don’t like taking the wind out of the sails of our economic expansion, but a few cautionary points should be considered... a massive shift in consumer behavior is under way.. American households entered this recession stretched to the limit with mortgage and other debt. The personal saving rate fell from around 8 per cent of disposable income two decades ago to almost zero. Households financed their lifestyles by drawing on increasing stock market and housing wealth, and taking on higher levels of debt. But falling house and stock prices have destroyed trillions of dollars in wealth, cutting off those ready sources of cash. What’s more, the stark realities of this recession have scared many households straight, convincing them that they need to save larger fractions of their incomes.... a rediscovery of thrift means fewer sales at the mall, and fewer jobs on assembly lines and store counters....
“This very weak economy is, if anything, putting downward pressure on wages and prices. We have already seen a noticeable slowdown in wage growth and reports of wage cuts have become increasingly prevalent—a sign of the sacrifices that some workers are making to keep their employers afloat and preserve their jobs. Businesses are also cutting prices and profit margins to boost sales..... With unemployment already substantial and likely to rise further, the downward pressure on wages and prices should continue and could intensify....
“If the economy fails to recover soon, it is conceivable that this very low inflation could turn into outright deflation. Worse still, if deflation were to intensify, we could find ourselves in a devastating spiral in which prices fall at an ever-faster pace and economic activity sinks more and more."
"Falling prices." "Deflation." "Devastating spiral." That's not the kind of honesty that one expects from a Fed chief. Yellen must have stopped drinking the lemonade.
And don't forget the banking system is still broken. Not a dime from the $700 billion TARP bailout was used to purchase toxic assets. The banks are still drowning in red ink. Bernanke has known since last September when Lehman Bros. defaulted, that the bad assets would have to be removed before the economy could recover. An underwater banking system is a constant drain on public resources and a drag on growth. Bernanke knows this, but rather than remove the assets by nationalizing the banks or restructuring their debt (as he should have done) he expanded the Fed's balance sheet by $1.2 trillion which provided the liquidity that financial institutions pumped into the stock market. "Bernanke's Rally" has generated the capital the banks needed to keep them from writing-down their debts or filing for Chapter 11, but the problems still persist right below the surface. Just this week, Elizabeth Warren's Congressional Oversight Panel released a damning report which stressed the need to address the issue of toxic assets. According to the COP's report:
"Financial stability remains at risk if the underlying problem of toxic assets remains unresolved.... If the economy worsens, especially if unemployment remains elevated or if the commercial real estate market collapses, then defaults will rise and the troubled assets will continue to deteriorate in value. Banks will incur further losses on their troubled assets. The financial system will remain vulnerable to the crisis conditions that TARP was meant to fix....
“Changing accounting standards helped the banks temporarily by allowing them greater leeway in describing their assets, but it did not change the underlying problem. In order to advance a full recovery in the economy, there must be greater transparency, accountability, and clarity, from both the government and banks, about the scope of the troubled asset problem.
“The problem of troubled assets is especially serious for the balance sheets of small banks. Small banks‘ troubled assets are generally whole loans, but Treasury‘s main program for removing troubled assets from banks‘ balance sheets, the PPIP will at present address only troubled mortgage securities and not whole loans.
“Given the ongoing uncertainty, vigilance is essential. If conditions exceed those in the worst case scenario of the recent stress tests, then stress-testing of the nation‘s largest banks should be repeated to evaluate what would happen if troubled assets suffered additional losses."
To sum up: There will be no real recovery until the toxic assets problem is resolved. Unfortunately, the Treasury and Fed have shown that they intend to sweep this issue under the rug for as long as possible.
Toxic assets, falling home prices, widespread malaise in the credit markets are just part of the problem. The deeper issue is the dismal condition of the US consumer who has seen his home equity dissipate, his retirement funds sawed in half,his access to credit curtailed, and his job put at risk. Ordinary working class Americans now face what David Rosenberg calls, "the era of consumer frugality---new paradigm of savings, asset liquidation and debt repayment ." Life styles will have to be toned-down and living standards lowered to meet the new deflationary reality. More and more people will be forced to jettison their credit cards and live within their means. It's not the end of the world, but it does foreshadow a protracted period of negative growth, social unrest and persistent high unemployment. Stock market euphoria can last a long time, but the laws of gravity still apply. Things will shake out eventually---and when they do--stocks will return to earth, debts will be written down, and a new era of thriftiness will ensue. Until then, it looks like we'll just keep faking it.
Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com
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