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April
26 / 27, 2003
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Steve
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Bush's War Web Log 4/26
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Zeynep
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April 29,
2003
Disorder and Opportunity
On the Results
of the War on Iraq
by GARY LEUPP
It is hard to be entirely dispassionate and objective
in evaluating the results of the attack on Iraq, on the basis
of what many perceive to be fabricated charges, and the consequent
imposition of (call it whatever you will) a military occupation
regime. But let me try, inviting correction and criticism should
I in any way err. I list these results in no particular order,
and comment only parenthetically.
1. Saddam Hussein has been removed from power.
(Comment: This, in itself, is a good
thing. Saddam was a horrible dictator, whose history, now more
than ever, deserves some study. Among the more interesting objects
of study might be his relationship with the U.S. intelligence
apparatus in 1963, when the Baath Party, in which Saddam held
a leading position, pulled off a coup and executed thousands
of communists; and his relationship with Donald Rumsfeld, whom
he met in 1983 and who encouraged Iraq in its very bloody war
against Iran.)
2. There has been a lot of looting
and chaos.
(Comment: This is just very, very sad,
the burning of the library especially tragic. If the Iraqis blame
the occupiers rather than themselves for these untidinesses,
there may be negative ramifications for the occupiers.)
3. There have been many demonstrations
throughout Iraq. These oppose the presence of foreign forces,
participants bearing placards with such slogans as "Invaders
Should Be Out." Factors generating these demonstrations
may include national pride, the toll of civilian injury and death,
postwar looting for which some blame the U.S., religious beliefs,
and pre-existing anti-U.S. sentiment. Some protests have been
very large. Some U.S. officials are surprised by these demonstrations,
about which one reads almost daily now in such newspapers as
the Boston Globe.
(Comment: Such information might color
popular perception of the war, what the Bush administration
terms "the War on Terrorism," as it enters new phases.
Some Americans may start to wonder whether Operation Iraqi Freedom
had anything to do with freedom. Or why the newly-freed Iraqis
for some reason get angry at the foreign presence, which some
in or around the Bush administration say will have to last several
years to lay the basis for what they conceptualize as Iraqi "democracy.")
(Further comment. Occupation officials
have so far tolerated the demonstrations. U.S. officials have
apparently not banned them, although on at least one occasion
they discouraged the foreign press from covering one of them.
Rather, they have publicly interpreted them as manifestations
of newly-acquired freedom, and pent-up frustration attributable
to the long years of Saddam's dictatorship. While some demonstrations
have been labeled "anti-American" in the U.S. press,
they have not been linked to terrorism.)
(Another comment: Perhaps these protests
will come to be linked to terrorism, or at least criminalized.
Lt. Gen. David McKiernan has already warned that Iraqi leaders
challenging "Coalition authority" will be viewed as
criminals and subject to arrest. See International Herald
Tribune, April 24. Anglo-American forces have also made it
clear they will not tolerate the establishment of the Islamic
state which, for better or worse, some of the demonstrators are
calling for. See Sydney Morning Herald, April 25. Rumsfeld
has declared that an Islamic state "simply won't happen."
If it turns out that the majority want such a state, the
U.S. stance against it might lead to problems. See Phil Reeves'
report in the Independent, April 26.)
4. There is now greater freedom for
the Shiites. The Shiites, 60% of Iraq's population, have
since Saddam's overthrow seized the opportunity to perform religious
observances that they could not perform under his rule, and Shiite
clerics have moved into the power vacuum, receiving widespread
support. They are however divided into factions.
(Comment: Due to some aspects of Shiite
religious practice, as reported in the mainstream press, their
political opposition to the U.S. might in the near future be
dismissed as part of a worldview just too bizarre and alien for
Americans to appreciate. So some might be inclined to dismiss
Shiite political behavior in toto. However, in some demonstrations,
protesters have emphasized Sunni-Shiite unity against the U.S.
presence, and Sunnis seem as apt as Shiites to demand the occupiers'
withdrawal [Agence France-Presse, April 25]. It does not look
as though opposition to foreign occupation is a specifically
Shiite proclivity, but involves members of other faiths, including
Chaldean Christians.)
5. Iran has been accused of interfering
in Iraq. Neighboring Shiite Iraq has been strongly warned
by the Bush administration not to intervene in what it terms
"Iraq's road to democracy," and accused of "infiltrating
forces" into the country to do that. The Supreme Council
for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which claims to command 10,000
troops in towns near the border with Iran, is backed by Iran.
(Comment: The neoconservatives wielding
great influence in the Bush administration have clearly indicated
their desire for "regime change" in Iran and placed
that country within the "axis of evil." Shiite-led
opposition to the U.S. presence could be attributed by U.S. authorities
to Iranian interference, and since Iran has been linked to terrorism,
anti-U.S. actions of the Shiites and others working with them
could be represented as "terrorist" and justify expansion
of the war to Iran.)
6. The war has allowed Anglo-American
forces to search for weapons of mass destruction without hindrance,
but so far (April 26), the forces have not found any weapons
of mass destruction. President Bush has stated, within
one twenty-four hour period, that they may never be found, and
that they certainly will be found eventually. (See Boston
Globe, April 25 and MSNBC, April 25).
(Comment: Bush seems obliged to bide
for time, and appeal for patience. Some represent the lack of
evidence for such weapons as an embarrassment for the U.S., and
this embarrassment may itself become a factor in the behavior
of the Bush administration. Should they be unable to come up
with anything, or should Judith Miller's April 21 New York
Times piece turn out to be another Niger uranium-type episode,
the embarrassment might give rise to even more reckless behavior
than we've seen so far. See below.)
7. The U.S. government has made accusations
against Syria pertaining to the results of the Iraq war. Specifically,
it has warned Syria not to harbor Iraqis that it has targeted
(on the basis of what it depicts as internationally recognized
legal grounds) for prosecution. U.S. officials have also alleged
that weapons of mass destruction have passed from Iraq into Syria,
and that Syria has al-Qaeda ties.
(Comment: The neoconservatives, who let
me reiterate, wield great influence in the Bush administration,
have clearly indicated their desire for "regime change"
in Syria. But there appear to be divisions within the Bush administration
about how to deal with Syria as well as Iran.)
8. The war caused discomfort to some
Iraqis, including at least 2000 civilians dead, and water
and electricity have yet to be restored to many households.
(Comment: Resumption of such utilities
by contracted foreign firms may or may not diminish the size
and frequency of the demonstrations mentioned above. I'm just
thinking aloud here, but should those demonstrations expand into
a national liberation movement, and should that movement be depicted
as a legitimate target of the War on Terrorism, we might see
a long ugly conflict.)
9. The war has placed international relations on a new footing.
The U.S.
administration has shown its ability to act upon
the doctrines outlined last fall in
the "National Security Strategy of the United States of
America," apparently authored by Condoleeza Rice (http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.html).
Such action has produced great strain on existing alliances and
has had consequences for the United Nations.
(Comment: When Richard Perle states that
France is no longer an ally, and calls upon the democratically-elected
German chancellor to resign; and when he and other neocons publicly
call for a strategy to "contain" France and Germany,
much as the U.S. once sought to "contain" the People's
Republic of China, you know that the world has changed.)
10. Finally: The results of the Iraq
campaign provide the war proponents ammunition for further action.
The opposition to the occupation is being attributed to Iranian
"interference" in the next-door country, and could
be used to build the case for regime change in Tehran. The lack
of evidence for a massive stockpile of weapons of mass destruction,
the casus belli of the Iraq war, is being attributed in
part to their posited removal to neighboring, rival Syria. This
attribution builds the case for war on that nation, whose government
(significantly termed "fascist" in a recent speech
by neocon ideologue James Woolsey) is also scheduled for removal,
in some part due to its support for anti-Israel organizations
Hezbollah and Hamas.
(Last comment: There is great disorder
under heaven, as the Chinese communists when they were communists
used to say. But there's also opportunity, for those who see
what's going on, to methodically oppose the evil the Bush administration
has visited to date on the world, and to produce something good
out of it. The beginning of wisdom, it seems to me, is to realize
we're all here under heaven, on a fragile planet, on which a
tiny cabal--- within an administration which barely managed to
worm into power in a country with some 5% of the world's population---threatens
all six billion of us with Armageddon. The increasingly popular
symbol of that planet is the
simple photo of earth taken from outer space. Everybody,
in my humble opinion, should have one and display it. "Just
say no" to this imperialist madness.)
Gary Leupp
is an an associate professor, Department of History, Tufts University
and coordinator, Asian Studies Program.
He can be reached at: gleupp@tufts.edu
Yesterday's
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Elaine
Cassel
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Saul
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William
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