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Today's Stories

July 30 / 31, 2005

JoAnn Wypijewski
Scenes and Silver Linings from Labor's Crack-Up

Sheldon Rampton
War is Fun as Hell: the Video Games Recruiters Play

Greg Moses
How to Cool Your Heels in Texas When It's Late July Across the World

Jordan Green
From Woolworth to Wal-Mart: Economics and the Race Divide in a Southern City

Patrick Cockburn
Getting Out of Iraq: 5,000 US Troops Have Gone AWOL

Brian Cloughley
The Bush-Cheney Fixation on Iran

Joshua Frank
Color-Coded Justice: John Roberts's Racial Hang Up

 

July 29, 2005

P. Sainath
The Class War in Gurgaon

Niranjan Ramakrishnan
How the West Was Lost: CAFTA and the Disassembling of America

Dave Lindorff
Marvelous Marvin Bush

J.L. Chestnut, Jr.
America's Racist Inventory: Oppression Breeds Violence

Pat Williams
Giving Away the Last Best Place

Norman Solomon
In Praise of Kevin Benderman: a Moral Leader of the Nation Goes to Prison

Sen. Russ Feingold
The Bad News About the Energy Bill

Cockburn / St. Clair
Who's the Real Martyr? Judy Miller or Jim DeFede?

 

 

July 28, 2005

Paul Craig Roberts
Departing Iraq

William S. Lind
The Duke of Alba and George W. Bush

Gilad Atzmon
Blair the Camera Man

Joshua Frank
Passing CAFTA: Blame the Democrats

Lila Rajiva
Vision Mumbai Submerged

Amina Mire
Pigmentation and Empire: the Emerging Skin-Whitening Industry

Website of the Day
Gateway to Underground News

 

July 27, 2005

Roger Morris
The Source Beyond Rove: Condoleezza Rice at the Center of the Plame Scandal

Gary Leupp
Is Iran Being Set Up?

Paul Craig Roberts
US Falling Behind Across the Board

Jackie Corr
Class War on the Ruby River: the Billionaire with His Foot in His Mouth

Mike Whitney
The Coming End of the Housing Bubble

Dave Zirin
Why Lance Armstrong Must Break with Bush

Christopher Bradley
Why I Have Trouble Reading the News

Norman Solomon
Thomas Friedman, Liberal Sadist?

Website of the Day
Stormin' Norman

 

 

July 26, 2005

Suren Pillay
The Enemy Within: When the "Other" is One of "Us"

JoAnn Wypijewski
Fission and Fizzle in Chicago: SEIU and Teamsters Quit the AFL

Patrick Cockburn
Iraq: the Unwinnable War

David Anderson
When the Greatest Outrage is the Lack of Outrage: NYC's Subway Searches

Joshua Frank
Hillary Clinton: Outflanking Bush from the Right

Lenni Brenner
Biography as Wish-Fulfillment: Jefferson, Hitchens and Atheism

David Swanson
Nuking Native Land

 

July 25, 2005

Paul Craig Roberts
China-Mart Takes Over

M. Shahid Alam
Terrorism: America Defines Its Targets

Uri Avnery
March of the Orange Shirts

Stan Cox
Kreationism in Kansas

Norman Solomon
"Wagging the Puppy"

Ramzy Baroud
London Bombings: Barbaric, But Not Unexpected

Mickey Z.
No Gun Ri: 55 Years Later

Website of the Day
The Birth of a Hummingbird in 15 Images

 

July 23 / 24, 2005

Alexander Cockburn
Islamo-Anarchs or Islamo-Fascists?

Tariq Ali
The War Comes Home

Robert Fisk
Something Happened

Dave Lindorff
Return of the Academic Witch Hunts

Ricardo Alarcón
Kidnapping in Miami: the UN, the US and the Cuban 5

Col. Dan Smith
Living in a Twilight Zone: Troop Strength, Recruitment and the Draft

Brian Cloughley
The Pentagon's China Hypocrisy

Kevin Zeese
Growing Republican Opposition to Iraq War

Bill Quigley
Harrowing Hours in Haiti

Fred Gardner
The Reverberations of Raich

Rep. Ron Paul
The Patriot Act is a Threat to Liberty

Joshua Frank
Framing Abortion: Gonadal Politics and the Democrats

Shivali Tukdeo
Project Mumbai Makeover: Casualties of Development

Gilad Atzmon
Blair's "Evil Ideology"

James Petras
Baghdad: Barbarism and Civilization (a Fiction)

Ben Tripp
When Being American Was Fun

Poets' Basement
Krieger, Louise, Buknatski, Albert and Engel

Website of the Weekend
Remember the West Memphis 3

July 22, 2005

Heather Gray
Home Grown Axis of Evil: Corp. Agribusiness, the Occupation of Iraq and the Dred Scott Decision

David Domke
The American Press and Credibility

Lance Selfa
Battle of the Insiders: No Heroes in the Plame Leak Scandal

JoAnn Wypijewski
Is This Really an "Insurgency" to Shake Up the Labor Movement?

 

July 21, 2005

Rose Ann DeMoro
The Top 10 Problems with the "Crisis" in the Labor Movement

William Blum
London: Another Casualty in the War on Terror

J.L. Chestnut, Jr.
Whites Need to Learn Something: Dixie is Everywhere

Christopher Brauchli
Strange Affairs: Liberals and Alberto Gonzales

Joshua Frank
Plame Blame Game: the 5 Ws

Brian Concannon, Jr.
Haiti's Elections: Time for a Reality Check

Patrick Cockburn
The True, Terrible State of Iraq and the Link to London

Website of the Day
Who Blew Up the Murrah Building?

 

 

July 20, 2005

Cockburn / St. Clair
Judge Roberts: Business as Usual

Roxanne Dunbar-Ortiz
Red Christmas

Ray McGovern
Did Dick Finger Valerie?: the Hand of Cheney

Chris Floyd
Judge Dread: John Roberts and the "Enemy Combatants"

Uri Avnery
"Silence is Filth"

Dave Lindorff
Westmoreland's Body Count Goes Up by One

Norman Solomon
Gen. Westmoreland's Death Wish

Bill Quigley
Travels in Haiti with a Wanted Priest

 

 

 

July 19, 2005

Tariq Ali
An Isolated Regime

John Ross
Jihad Meets G-8

Davey D.
More Clear Channel Censorship: "Don't F--K Around with Tha Police"

Greg Weiher
Muzzling Saddam: the Old Bait-and-Switch in Iraqi Jurisprudence

Brian McKinlay
An "Arse Licker" Goes to Washington: John Howard's Grand Tour

Norman Solomon
Nukes for India; Threats for Iran

Dave Lindorff
Get Back to Where We Once Belonged

Bill Christison
Bush's Itinerary: First Stop Syria, Next Stop Iran

Joshua Frank
Laura's Justice?: Meet Edith Brown Clement

 

July 18, 2005

Joshua Frank
An Interview with Ward Churchill

M. Shahid Alam
A Muslim Problem: Did Thomas Friedman Flunk History?

Jude Wanniski
Memo to Patrick Fitzgerald

Ron Jacobs
A Weekend to Stop the War

Mike Whitney
The Straight Line Between Falluja and King's Cross Station

William MacDougall
From "Bring It On" to "London Can Take It"

Seth Sandronsky
Temporary Recovery: New Frontiers in Labor Flexibility

Richard Lichtman
The Consolations of George Lakoff

Paul Craig Roberts
Can Congressional Republicans End Bush's Wars?

Website of the Weekend
Novels of the Neo-Cons

 

July 15 / 17, 2005

Alexander Cockburn
Don't You Dare Call It Treason

Jeffrey St. Clair
Sticky Fingers: the Making of Halliburton

Paul Craig Roberts
Economic Treason

Harry Browne
"What They Do to Us, They Will Do to You": Shell Oil in Mayo, Ireland

Uri Davis, Ilan Pappe and Tamar Yaron
A Warning from Israel

Andrew Rubin
End of the Enlightenment: an Open Letter to Stephen Plaut

Patrick Cockburn
Iraq's Ghost Battalions

J.L. Chestnut, Jr.
Changes in Selma: Standing Up to Racism in the South

Fred Gardner
A Professional Bust

Christopher Brauchli
An Olympic Feat: How to "Double" Aid with No New Money

Chris Floyd
The Great Iraq Oil Giveaway

Ben Tripp
The Dark Incontinent

Col. Dan Smith
General Abizaid, I'm Glad You Asked

Jason Leopold
What Did Rove Say and When Did He Say It?

Jack Random
Miller Time

Norman Solomon
War and Venture Capitalism

George Ochenski
Liberate Montana's Rivers: Come One, Come All!

Website of the Weekend
Vote for CounterPuncher David Vest

 

 

July 14, 2005

Jeffrey St. Clair
Sticky Fingers: the Making of Halliburton

Subcomandante Marcos
This is What Will Do and How We Shall Do It: the Sixth Declaration of the Selva Lacandona

Dave Lindorff
No More Moral Relativism: the US is a Terrorist State

Joshua Frank
Rove Agency: Liberals and the CIA

Jude Wanniski
Those 8 Black Pages: What's the Real Story on Karl Rove?

Dave Zirin
Storming the Castle

Kevin Zeese
Exit Strategy: Within Reach?

Robert Jensen
War Myths and the Press

Reza Fiyouzat
A Worldwide Call to Free Akbar Ganji

Carol Norris
Governor Paranoid: Schwarzenegger Comes Unhinged

Website of the Day
Nate Osborn: Heroic Human Rights Activist and CounterPuncher

 

July 13, 2005

Brian Cloughley
Cold Blooded Murders in Iraq

George Galloway
We Can't Separate the London Bombings from the Political Backdrop

Carlos Fierro
A Supreme Waste of Time

Sarah Knopp
Hate on the Border

Norman Solomon
"Isolated Pockets of Problems": the Fake Optimism of Washington's Warriors

Mickey Z.
Water on the Brain

Jim Minick
The Right Tree in the Right Place

Pat Williams
American Indian Education for All

Andrew N. Rubin
Life Behind the Wall: "We are No Longer Able to See the Sun Set"

Website of the Day
"London's Burning": the Mikey Mix

 

 

July 12, 2005

Laith al-Saud
Voices of Resistance: an Interview with Dr. Mohammed al-Obaidi of Iraq's Peoples' Struggle Movement

Kara N. Tina
"This is How We Do It": Report from the Gleneagles Battlefield

William A. Cook
The London Bombings: Why Has It Come to This?

Jack Bratich
2 Live Cruise: Tom Cruise v. Big Pharma

Amina Mire
The Problem with Speaking in the Name of Others

Dick J. Reavis
Lessons from the Christian Jihadists: the Virtues of Burning Crosses and Colored Smoke

Kevin Zeese
Depleted Uranium: States Take Action to Protect Their Vets

Paul Craig Roberts
No-Think Nation

Website of the Day
Coke Gags Indian Artist

 

 

July 9 / 11, 2005

Alexander Cockburn
After the Bombings

Uri Avnery
War of the Colors in Israel

Sheldon Rampton
Blaming Galloway: Rhetoric vs. Reality in London

Bill Christison
Hiroshima's 60th Anniversary and Nukes in Iran: an Opportunity or Just More Hand-wringing from the Peace Movement?

Robert Fisk
Blair's Alliance with Bush Bombed

Stephen Winspear
Collateral Damage in London?

Saul Landau
Mission Accomplished: Iraq is Broken

Behrooz Ghamari
Thomas Friedman's Muslim Problem

Karl Beitel
False Promises and Real Debt Relief

Brian Concannon, Jr.
Throwing Gasoline on Haiti's Fires

Fred Gardner
Sentencing Season

John Whitlow
And What Does the Market Say?

Niranjan Ramakrishnan
The London Blasts: Who's Being Transformed, Them or Us?

Lila Rajiva
Witches and Bastards

Laura Carlsen
CAFTA: Deepening the Inequities

Jackie Corr
Ted Turner and Jiminy Cricket

Dave Lindorff
"My Brother Went Over There Gung Ho; Now He's Just Bitter"

N. D. Jayaprakash
Why the CIA Tried to Kill Chou En Lai at the Bandung Conference

Seth Sandronsky
Meet the "Truth Tour": Rightwing Radio Hosts Go to Iraq

Norman Madarasz
The Choking of Brazil's Worker Party

Ben Tripp
The Inevitability of George W. Bush

Poets' Basement
Louise, Albert, Landau, Davies and Engel

Website of the Weekend
The Mother of All Enemies Lists

 

 

July 8, 2005

Paul Craig Roberts
Blowback Hits Britain: Londoners Pay Heavy Price for Blair's Deception

Tariq Ali
The London Bombings: Why They Happened

Monica Benderman
One Soldier's Fight to Legalize Morality

Rick Jahnkow
Beyond Opt-Out: the Counter-Recruitment Movement

Christopher Brauchli
Dear Vet: If You Want to Eat While You Recuperate, You Gotta Pay Extra

Kim Peterson
Bombs in the Underground: Terror Begats Terror

Joshua Frank
Leakers and Liars: Inching Toward Indictments?

Norman Solomon
Messages from the Carnage

Website of the Day
An Interview with Ray McGovern

 

July 7, 2005

Cockburn / St. Clair
Judy Miller: the Luckiest Martyr

John Walsh
More Hawkish Than Bush: Dems in Full Battle Cry

Mike Marqusee
Message from London

Gilad Atzmon
London's Burning

Nicole Colson
Showdown at the Supreme Court

Jack Random
Judith Miller, Anti-Hero

Norman Solomon
Judith Miller, Drum Majorette for War

Len Colodny
Is Bob Woodward Still Protecting Al Haig?

Cockburn / St. Clair
Judy Miller: the Luckiest Martyr

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Weekend Edition
July 30 / 31, 2005

Bush Administration Suppresses Peak Oil Study

Where is the Hirsch Report?

By RICHARD HEINBERG

Over the past few months controversy has raged over the timing of Peak Oil: the moment when global oil production will reach its all-time maximum and begin its inevitable descent.

Oil optimists say the event won't occur for twenty years or more, and that market forces will result in an imperceptible transition to alternative forms of energy. "The Stone Age didn't end for lack of stones," say the optimists, "and the Petroleum Age won't end because we run out of oil"-but because we find something better and cheaper with which to fuel our society.

Pessimists point out that global oil discoveries have been plummeting for decades and that supply and demand are now closely matched (hence the run-up in oil prices over the past few months); moreover, there simply isn't an alternative energy source available that can take oil's place in the near term. They say we may be at peak now, and that the consequences will be staggering.

In short, oil pessimists spin out end-of-civilization scenarios while optimists insist that there is nothing to worry about.

Evidently the US Department of Energy is interested enough in the Peak-Oil debate to commission a report on the subject. Released in February this year by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and titled "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management," the report examines the likely consequences of the impending global peak. It was authored principally by Robert L. Hirsch (bio: www.d-n-i.net/fcs/hirsch_bio.htm), and is as remarkable for its subsequent reception as for its content.

The report's Executive Summary begins with the following paragraph:

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.

The report's authors were not asked to assess when the global peak is likely to occur; however they do survey the range of forecasts from optimists and pessimists alike, projecting a peak date anywhere from 2005 to 2037.

The Hirsch report examines three scenarios: one in which mitigation efforts are not undertaken until global oil production peaks; a second in which efforts commence ten years in advance of peak; and a third in which efforts begin twenty years prior to the peak. Each scenario assumes a "crash program rate of implementation." In the first case, the study concludes that peak will leave the world with a "significant liquid fuels deficit for more than two decades" that "will almost certainly cause major economic upheaval"; even with a ten-year lead time for mitigation efforts government intervention will be required and the world will experience a ten-year fuel shortfall. A crash program initiated twenty years ahead of the event will offer "the possibility" of avoiding a fuel shortfall. The report emphasizes repeatedly that both supply- and demand-side mitigation options will take many years to implement and will cost "literally trillions of dollars"; it also notes that "the world has never faced a problem like this."

The Hirsch report concludes that substantial mitigation of the economic, social, and political impacts of Peak Oil can come only from efforts both to increase energy supplies from alternative sources and to reduce demand for oil. With regard to the claim that efficiency measures by themselves will be enough to forestall dire impacts, Hirsch et al. note that, "While greater end-use efficiency is essential, increased efficiency alone will be neither sufficient nor timely enough to solve the problem. Production of large amounts of substitute liquid fuels will be required." Further, "Mitigation will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort, because the scale of liquid fuels mitigation is inherently extremely large." Hirsch, et al., also point out that "The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past 'energy crisis' experience will provide relatively little guidance."

Oil optimists often say that efforts aimed at mitigating the effects of Peak Oil undertaken too soon would entail a cost to society. The SAIC Report agrees. However, it concludes that, "If peaking is imminent, failure to initiate timely mitigation could be extremely damaging. Prudent risk management requires the planning and implementation of mitigation well before peaking. Early mitigation will almost certainly be less expensive than delayed mitigation."

Optimists also insist that the market can take care of the problem: high oil prices will stimulate more exploration, the development of more efficient cars, and the deployment of alternative energy technologies. Interference with market mechanisms would be harmful, they say, and so the government should steer clear of the problem by avoiding setting higher efficiency standards, subsidizing renewables, and so on.

The report's authors dismiss these claims. Price signals warn only of immediate scarcity; however, the mitigation efforts needed in order to prepare for the global oil production peak must be undertaken many years in advance of the event. Hirsch, et al., maintain that, "Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic. The experiences of the 1970s and 1980s offer important guides as to government actions that are desirable and those that are undesirable, but the process will not be easy."

Here, then, is a significant report produced by an independent research company for the US Department of Energy, warning of a global problem of "unprecedented" proportions with economic, social, and political impacts that are likely to be extremely severe. The authors forecast "protracted economic hardship" for the United States and the rest of the world. It is a problem that deserves "immediate, serious attention."

Yet, half a year after its release, the Hirsch report is nowhere to be found. For several months it was archived, in PDF format, on a high school web site (www.hilltoplancers.org, Hilltop High School in Chula Vista, Calif.). On July 7 the report disappeared from that site. The Atlantic Council (www.acus.org) is considering publishing the Hirsch report; however there is no projected date of release. When contacted, Dr. Hirsch replied that the document is "a public report, paid for and released by DOE NETL, and that it therefore could be reposted at will." Project Censored has now posted the report in full.

If the content of the Hirsch report is to be believed-and there is every reason to think it should be-then this is a document that deserves the close attention of every leader of government and industry in the US. Newspapers and newsmagazines should be running excerpts and summaries. Instead, there is nearly total silence. In late May Robert Hirsch presented the substance of the report at the annual Workshop of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) in Lisbon, Portugal to an audience of about 300 (www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/Abstract_Lisbon_Hirsch.pdf). That event received virtually no press coverage in the US.

Meanwhile oil is hovering around $60 and is likely to head higher, and analysts look to the fourth quarter of 2005 unsure whether supply will be able to keep up with burgeoning demand.

Richard Heinberg writes for the Museletter. He can be reached at: rheinberg@igc.org