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CounterPunch
November
6, 2002
A Diplomatic
Strategy
How Carter and Castro Could Avert War on Iraq
by WILLIAM M. EVAN
One would hardly think that former President Jimmy
Carter and President Fidel Castro of Cuba would be likely partners
in peacemaking. However, if they were to undertake a peace mission
to Baghdad, they might be able to avert a war on Iraq that could
cause thousands of deaths and unleash terrorism worldwide.
At the recent three-day conference in
Havana commemorating the 40th anniversary of the Cuban Missile
Crisis, McNamara and Castro, two of the principal antagonists,
asked what can be learned to avert the risk of nuclear war in
the future. Reflecting on how close the U.S. and the Soviet Union
came to starting a nuclear war, McNamara concluded that the Cuban
missile crisis was "the best-managed foreign policy crisis
of the last 50 years."
The current conflict over Saddam Hussein's
Iraq has brought us to the brink of a potential global crisis,
especially if he defies the U.N. inspectors' efforts to eliminate
his weapons of mass destruction. Carter, the indefatigable peacemaker
and newly-minted Nobel Peace Laureate has the experience, the
temperament, and the will to grapple with this grave crisis.
Castro, the President of Cuba for over four decades, has shown
an uncanny ability to withstand years of political and economic
sanctions by the U.S. In addition, he may be able to fathom the
mind of Saddam Hussein. Together, Carter and Castro would make
an exceptionally powerful peacemaking team.
The overwhelming vote in Congress authorizing
war on Iraq has empowered President Bush to press his case for
a new resolution by the Security Council to compel Iraq to disarm.
The U.S. is expected to introduce a tough single resolution requesting
Security Council authorization for a military attack if Iraq
obstructs the efforts of U.N. inspectors. France with the
support of Russia and possibly also China has continued
to argue for two resolutions. If the U.N. inspectors fail, they
would not automatically trigger a war on Iraq. The security Council
would have to debate and pass a second resolution authorizing
the use of force.
Given Saddam Hussein's record of violating
16 previous Security Council resolutions, a grim scenario is
likely to unfold. He is again likely to thwart the efforts of
U.N. inspectors to disarm him; and the Security Council would
have to eventually vote a final resolution clearing the way for
Persian Gulf War II-this time with disastrous consequences.
Can such a disaster be averted? Possibly,
if Carter and Castro can arrange a meeting with Saddam Hussein.
To work their magic, they would have to convince Hussein that
"the writing is on the wall": The U.S., Britain, and
other allies do indeed have the capability and the determination
to destroy his war-making capacities and, in turn, his regime.
What is more, they would have to convince Hussein that a new
war would cause untold destruction of Baghdad and even Tikrit,
where Hussein's family and clansmen live.
They would also seek to appeal to his
self-interest-his desire for survival, his self-image of invincibility,
and his dream of becoming a second Saladin. After three decades
of rule in Baghdad and after reaching the age of 65, shouldn't
Hussein think of a better way of finishing his remaining years
on Earth than by causing utter destruction to his country and
his countrymen? If, at long last, Hussein decides to provide
the U.N. inspection team with all the necessary information so
that they could achieve the elimination of his weapons of mass
destruction, Castro would offer him a safe passage to Cuba and
a safe haven for himself, his three wives, his two sons, along
with an entourage of favorite relatives from Tikrit.
In addition, Castro would offer to provide
Hussein with a complex of "palaces" in Havana, protected
by Swiss guards, to ensure his safety and that of his family
and relatives.
Instead of meeting an ignominious end
in one of his countless underground bunkers in Baghdad-not unlike
Hitler in his bunker in Berlin--Saddam Hussein would go down
in history as a ruthless and brutal dictator who, at the eleventh
hour, sought redemption for himself and his country by abdicating
his rule.
Achieving this coup of preventing a war
on Iraq would add further glory to Carter's illustrious career
and to the Carter Center on conflict resolution in Atlanta. As
for Castro, by helping to rescue the world from the torments
of a possible lethal Gulf War II, he would have an opportunity
to eventually end his rule in Cuba in a spirit of magnanimity.
William M. Evan is professor emeritus of sociology and
management at the University of Pennsylvania. Author of several
books on organization theory and the sociology of law, his most
recent book (with Mark Manion) is Minding
the Machines: Preventing Technological Disasters. He
can be reached at: EvanW@wharton.upenn.edu
(Copyright © 2002 William M. Evan.
All rights Reserved.)
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