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CounterPunch
February
6, 2003
Blix versus Powell
The Case for
War Remains Unmade
by PHYLLIS BENNIS
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's
presentation to the UN Security Council on February 5 wasn't
likely to win over anyone not already on his side. He ignored
the crucial fact that in the past several days (in Sunday's New
York Times and in his February 4th briefing of UN journalists)
Hans Blix denied key components of Powell's claims.
Blix, who directs the UN inspection team
in Iraq, said the UNMOVIC inspectors have seen "no evidence"
of mobile biological weapons labs, has "no persuasive indications"
of Iraq-al Qaeda links, and no evidence of Iraq hiding and moving
material used for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) either outside
or inside Iraq. Dr. Blix also said there was no evidence of Iraq
sending scientists out of the country, of Iraqi intelligence
agents posing as scientists, of UNMOVIC conversations being monitored,
or of UNMOVIC being penetrated.
Further, CIA and FBI officials still
believe the Bush administration is "exaggerating" information
to make their political case for war. Regarding the alleged Iraqi
link with al Qaeda, U.S. intelligence officials told the New
York Times, "we just don't think it's there."
The most compelling part of Powell's
presentation was his brief ending section on the purported al
Qaeda link with Iraq and on the dangers posed by the al Zarqawi
network. However, he segued disingenuously from the accurate
and frightening information about what the al Zarqawi network
could actually do with biochemical materials to the not-so-accurate
claim about its link with Iraq--which is tenuous and unproven
at best.
A key component of the alleged Iraq-al
Qaeda link is based on what Powell said "detainees tell
us". That claim must be rejected. On December 27 the Washington
Post reported that U.S. officials had acknowledged detainees
being beaten, roughed up, threatened with torture by being turned
over to officials of countries known to practice even more severe
torture. In such circumstances, nothing "a detainee"
says can be taken as evidence of truth given that people being
beaten or tortured will say anything to stop the pain. Similarly,
the stories of defectors cannot be relied on alone, as they have
a self-interest in exaggerating their stories and their own involvement
to guarantee access to protection and asylum.
In his conclusion, Powell said, "We
wrote 1441 not in order to go to war, we wrote 1441 to try to
preserve the piece." It is certainly at least partially
true that the UN resolution was an effort to "preserve the
peace," although it is certainly not true that the U.S.
wrote 1441 to preempt war. Rather, the Bush administration intended
that the resolution would serve as a first step toward war.
Finally, the "even if" rule
applies. "Even if" everything Powell said was true,
there is simply not enough evidence for war. There is no evidence
of Iraq posing an imminent threat, no evidence of containment
not working. Powell is asking us to go to war--risking the lives
of 100,000 Iraqis in the first weeks, hundreds or thousands of
U.S. and other troops, and political and economic chaos--because
he thinks MAYBE in the future Iraq might rebuild its weapons
systems and MIGHT decide to deploy weapons or MIGHT give those
weapons to someone else who MIGHT use them against someone we
like or give them to someone else who we don't like, and other
such speculation. Nothing that Powell said should alter the position
that we should reject a war on spec.
Phyllis Bennis
is a Middle East analyst for Foreign
Policy In Focus and a senior analyst at the Institute for
Policy Studies.) She can be reached at: pbennis@compuserve.com
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