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Today's
Stories
October 26,
2004
Kathleen Christison
Why
I Liked Thomas Friedman's Latest Column Before I Didn't
October 25,
2004
Ralph Nader
Letter
from a Minnesota Highway
Werther
West
Texas Wahabbism
Dave Zirin
Boston's Killer Cops: Death of a Fan
Fred Gardner
Pot Shots: Oregon Revokes Dr. Leveque's License
Omar Barghouti
Executing Another Child in Rafah
William J. Nottingham
Lori Berenson's Story
John Chuckman
A Foolish Consistency
Uri Avnery
On
the Road to Civil War
October 22
/ 24, 2004
Alexander Cockburn
You
Can't Blame Nader for This
Rev. William Alberts
On Bended Knee: Faith-Based Deceptions
Willliam A.
Cook
Killing for Christ
Saul Landau
George W. Bush: a Man of His Words?
Bill Quigley
I Held the Bullet in My Palm: Masked Haitian Police Shoot Children
While Arresting Priest
Christopher Brauchli
Seal It With a Frown: What Compassionate Conservativism Really
Means
William S.
Lind
Fallujah and the Moral Level of War
Sharon Smith
Guilt Trippers for Kerry
Greg Bates
Kerrynomics: "Hurt the Ones Who Vote for Us"
Justin E.H. Smith
Is Lesser Evilism a Compromise with Evil?
Rebecca Evans
Tarnished Legacy: Pinochet and the Chilean Military
Mike Whitney
Al Hurra TV: the Second Invasion
M. Junaid Alam
Purchasing Individuality in America
David Krieger
Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Examining the Policies of Bush and
Kerry
David J. Ledermann
The Emperor's New Crumbs
Lawrence Reichard
Same Old FBI Story
Website of
the Weekend
Lie Girls: the Real Coalition of the Willling
October 21,
2004
Ben Tripp
The
Undecided Voter Examined
Joshua Frank
Kerry
and the Environment:
It's Not Easy Pretending to be Green
Stan Cox
What
the Left Doesn't Get About Small Businesses
Bill Martinez
State
Depart and Cuban Visas: Only Anti-Castro Agitators Need Apply
Mark Engler
The War and Globalization
Lina Britto
and Lucia Suarez
Bolivia:
a Year After the October Insurrection
Website of the Day
Two Pampered Children of Wealth
October 20,
2004
Yitzhak Laor
"Did
You Two Squabble?": a Bullet Fired for Every Palestinian
Child
Jason Leopold
Sinclair
Broadcasting's Air War: a Long History of Journalistic Deception
Jesse Sharkey
A
Teacher's Account of How Military Recruiters Prey on High School
Students
Col. Dan Smith
Choking
Free Speech About the Draft
Dr. Teresa Whitehurst
Using My Religion
David Vest
If
Bush Wins, Blame Me
Jack Random
The Jackson 17: Reflections on a Mutiny
Ron Jacobs
Time
to Kick It Up a Notch
James Brittain
Plan Patriota and the FARC: a Change in the Countryside?
Christopher
Dols
Bombing Madison: Michael Moore's Fright Fest
Dave Lindorff
First They Came for the Nurses...
Website of
the Day
Banana Republican Catalogue
October 19,
2004
Jeffrey St.
Clair
Party
Favors: the Political Business of Terry McAuliffe
Jeff Taylor
Confessions
of a Swing State Voter
Matt Vidal
American
Myopia: "More Money in Your Pocket"
Victor Kattan
"It's Not Who You're Against; It's Who You're For":
Palestine Takes Center Stage At Euro Social Forum
William Loren
Katz
What Goes Around Comes Around
Sean Carter
O'Reilly Should Shut Up About Extortion Claiims
CounterPunch Wire
Who's Really in Bed with Republican Funders: Kerry or Nader?
October 18,
2004
Saul Landau
Facts
and Lies; Slogans and Truth
Dave Lindorff
Bulletin
on the Bush Bulge
Diane Christian
Sheep
and Goats: On the Language of Goodness
Greg Bates / Dave Lindorff
Betting on War: a Wager on the Fallout of a Kerry Presidency
Uri Avnery
Ariel
Sharon's Philosophy
Peter LaVenia
Leaving the Greens So Soon? a Response to Josh Frank
Mike Whitney
O'Reilly at the Whipping Post
Elaine Cassel
The Other War: Civil Liberties Three Years After 9/11
October 16
/ 17, 2004
Alexander Cockburn
The
Free Speech Movement and Howard Stern
Leslie Brill
Unmerciful Judge, Merry Executioners: the Death Penalty as the
True Measure of Bush's Character
Jules Rabin
Reckoning Deaths in an Agitated World
Dave Lindorff
About the Bush Bulge: Was There a Pucker in That Jacket or Was
the President Just Glad to be There?
Peter Linebaugh
Judging Judges: a Few Pages from The Mirror of Justices
Gary Leupp
Iran and Syria: How to Effect Regime Change and Expand the Empire
M. Shahid Alam
America, Imagine This!
Ron Jacobs
Trying to Cross Lake Champlain
Fred Gardner
The Flu Vaccine Question: How Bush Blew It
Jenna Orkin
The Toxic Legacy of 9/11
Dave Zirin
Name the DC Baseball Team: Contest Results
David Hamilton
Alone and Exposed: Bush as a Strong Leader?
Ralph Nader
Criticizing Israel is Not Anti-Semitism
Doug Giebel
Thinking the Unthinkable
Mark Engler
Crimes in Freedom's Name: Dick Cheney's El Salvador
Derek Tyner
Blacks Didn't Get the Vote by Voting: an Interview With Clarence
Thomas on the Million Worker March
Evan Jones
Gimme That Ole Time Religion: Cash and "The Mind of the
South"
Poets' Basement
LaMorticella, Klipschutz and Albert
Website of
the Weekend
No More Bush Girls
October 15,
2004
Paul Craig
Roberts
Where
Did These "Conservatives" Come From?: The Brownshirting
of America
Laura Carlsen
Wal-Mart
vs. the Pyramids of the Sun and Moon
Greg Bates
Empire of Insanity: Kerry's Iraq Troop Numbers
Michael Donnelly
News from a Swing State: Does Anyone Here Have a Spine?
Katherine Lahey
The Venezuelan "Threat": Why Do Kerry and Bush Fear
Hugo Chavez?
Robert Jensen
/ Pat Youngblood
Election Day Fears
Leah Caldwell
From
Supermax to Abu Ghraib: the Masterminds of Torture and Abuse
Website of
the Day
An Anti-Billionaire Policy? Why That Would Be Economic Racism
October 14,
2004
Darcy Richardson
The
Other Progressive Candidate: the Lonely Crusade of Walt Brown
Willliam A.
Cook
Turning
Myths into Truth
Laura Santina
Water, Women and War
Evelyn Pringle
Free Speech Banned by Big Pharma: What You Can't Say About Drug
Importation
Alan Farago
Lessons
from Nature
Rep. Maxine Waters
A Letter to Colin Powell on Haiti
Nicole Colson
Maimed
for Oil and Empire
October 13,
2004
Bishop Thomas
Gumbleton and Bill Quigley
Aftermath
of a Coup: The Other Disaster in Haiti
Sharon Smith
Barak
O-Bomb-a?: Democrats Target Iran
Christopher Brauchli
God and the Bush Administration
Mike Whitney
The Real Meaning of the Hamdi Case
Paul de Rooij
Amnesty
International: a False Beacon?
Website of
the Day
Operation
Truth
October 12,
2004
Roxanne Dunbar-Ortiz
"Indian
Country"
Greg Bates
The Year of Voting Dangerously: a Survey Request of Nader Voters
in Swing States
Steven Conn
Progressives as Pawns: Kerry's War on Nader
Jason Leopold
Under Cheney, Halliburton Helped Saddam Siphon Billions from
UN Oil-for-Food Program
Security Scholars
for a Sensible Foreign Policy
Time for a Change of Course
Timothy J. Freeman
Dying for a Mistake
Pierre Tristam
Deconstructing Bush
Niranjan Ramakrishnan
The 2nd Debate: the Blurring of Act and Audience
Bill and Kathleen
Christison
Israel as Sideshow
Website of the Day
John Kerry's Personal Off-Shore Tax Shelters
October 11,
2004
Robert Fisk
Iraq:
Unforgivable Betrayals and Broken Promises
Kevin Pina
The
Untold Story of Aristide's Departure from Haiti
Patrick Gavin
Rethinking
Columbus Day
Chris Floyd
Tribes with Flags in the New Afghanistan
Daniel Wolff
Radioactive Money: Entergy, Political Cash and America's Most
Dangerous Nuclear Plant
Walter Brasch
The Only Ones Who Believe Saddam Had WMDs are Bush, Cheney...and
40% of All Americans
Mike Whitney
The Phony Afghan Elections: Ballot of the Disappearing Ink
Ari Shavit
"He Talks to Condi Rice Every Day": an Interview with
Sharon's Lawyer
Paul Craig
Roberts
The
Debates and the Big Lie
Website of the Day
Dylan's Greatest Recording?
October 9 /
10, 2004
Alexander Cockburn
"There
Are No Innocents"
Paul de Rooij
Northern Ireland is Still the Issue: a Conversation with Gerry
Adams
M. Shahid Alam
Making Sense of Our Times
Laura Carlsen
Protest and Populism in Latin America
Fred Gardner
Pot Shots: ASA Goes to Court
Col. Dan Smith
Bush's Credibility Gap
Paul Craig
Roberts
Faith-Based Economics
Greg Bates
What If Nader Critics Get What They Demand?
Joshua Frank
Cobb, the Greens and the Collapse of the Left
Felice Pace
Wilderness, Politics and the Oligarchy: How the Pew Charitable
Trust is Smothering the Grassroots Environmental Movement
Walter A. Davis
Of Pynchon, Thanatos and Depleted Uranium
William A.
Cook
The Agony of Colin Powell
Phyllis Pollack
Twas No Crank Call Love Affair: London Calling, 25 Years Later
Poets' Basement
Klipschutz, Albert, Ford
Website of the Weekend
Abu Ghraib: the Taguba Annexes
October 8,
2004
Jennifer Loewenstein
The
Israeli Invasion of Gaza
Moshe Adler
Edwards' Gambit: He Hoped No One Would Notice the Similarities
David Swanson
Media Blackout: Press Continues to Ignore Labor's Opposition
to Iraq War
Dave Zirin
CounterPunch Contest: Let's Name the New DC Baseball Team!
Rep. Ron Paul
The Draft is a Form of Slavery
William S. Lind
Keeping Our SA Up
Samar Assad
Kerry v. Bush: No Difference When It Comes to Israel / Palestine
Jim Ingalls
and Sonali Kolhatkar
The Elections in Afghanistan
October 7,
2004
Dave Lindorff
All
Out of Volunteers: A Draft is in the Air
Masha Hamilton
Fear in Kandahar
Christopher
Brauchli
Master of Corruption: the Ripening Scandals of Tom Delay
Jason Leopold
Is There Still Time to Impeach Bush?
Bruce K. Gagnon
Bombing the Panhandle: Fighting the Pentagon in Rural Florida
Meredith Kolodner
Where
is the Urgency?: The Anti-War Movement's Election Year Challenge
October 6,
2004
Jeffrey St.
Clair
"Please,
Dude, Can I Take Them Out?": Targeting Civilians in Fallujah
Ron Jacobs
Going
Nuclear: the Ghost of Edward Teller Lives
Michael Colby
The National Flip-Flop: Suddenly Bush is Unfit to Lead?
Tarif Abboushi
More of the Same: Israel Wins the Debates
Matthew Behrens
Canadian Firms Profit from Iraqi Blood
Mike Whitney
Rethinking WMDs
John Pilger
Stealing Diego Garcia
Ben Tripp
Kerry's "Triumph"
Kevin McKiernan
Cheney's Poison Lab: Wrong Time, Wrong Target
Patrick Cockburn
Elections
Will Not End the Fighting in Iraq
Website of the Day
Is There an Islamic Problem?
October 5,
2004
Anthony Loewenstein
Rupert
Murdoch and the Marginals: "Personally Creating Outcomes"
Mark Clinton
and Tony Udell
The
Suicide of an Iraq War Veteran
Greg Bates
Trading
Idiots: an Open Letter to Eric Alterman
Dave Lindorff
What's
the Frequency, Karl?
Norm Dixon
Why Washington Won't Save Darfur Villagers
Larry Kearney
God Talk and Burning Children
Bill Linville
Dirty Politics in the Land of "Clean" Government
Gary Leupp
What
Edwards Should Ask Cheney
Website of
the Day
A Guide to Halliburton for Tonight's Debate
October 4,
2004
Diane Christian
The
Gates of Hell
Joshua Frank
An Interview with David Cobb
Doug Giebel
Incurious George: What If Bush Didn't Lie?
John Chuckman
Strange Victory: Sen. Obvious and the Pathetic Lump
Ramzy Baroud
Reverse the Picture: Anatomy of a Palestinian Outrage
Julia Stein
Remembering Mario Savio and the FSM
Sean Donahue
Outsourcing
Terror: Kerry and Special Forces
Website of
the Day
Mapping
Mt. St. Helens as She Rocks
October 2 /
3. 2004
Paul Wright
John
Kerry on Criminal Justice
Kathleen and Bill Christison
An Exchange with Israeli Historian Bennie Morris
Kathie Helmkamp
My Son Trent: a Marine Who Doesn't Want to Kill
Phillip Cryan
Indigenous Mobilization in Colombia
Lenni Brenner
The First Ex-Catholic Saint: Memories of Mario Savio
Fred Gardner
Pot Shots: In Case You Missed "Montel"
Ron Jacobs
It Did Happen Here: When Neo-Nazis Terrorized Olympia
Ben Tripp
Sticker Shock
William S.
Lind
The Grand Illusion: Iraqi Security Forces
Dave Zirin
The Swindle of the Century: Baseball Comes to DC
Dave Lindorff
Lies from the Great Debate
Luscon Pierre-Charles
Haiti's Elections: a High-Tech Sham is Underway
Zoe Moskovitz
& Sasha Kramer
Separating Lies from Truth About Haiti
Nelson P. Valdes
Habana Night vs. Latin American Scholars in Vegas: 61 Banned
Cuban Academics
Alan Farago
The "Ownership Society" and the End of the Everglades
Nancy Haley
What is the Historical Jesus Trying to Tell Us?
Alex Billet
Long Live The Clash: London Still Calling After 25 Years
Steve Fesenmaier
Save and Burn: The War on Libraries
Poets' Basement
Smith, Holt, Albert
October 1,
2004
Steve Breyman
Kerry's
Missed Opportunities
Rose Gentle
My
Son Died for a Lie
Lee Sustar
Iran
in the Crosshairs
Ralph Nader
What
We Didn't Hear at the Debate: Where's the Exit Strategy?
Walter Andrews
We Are Less Secure Now Than Ever
Mike Whitney
Pandora's
Government
Mickey Z.
Debate
This
Saul Landau
The
Iraq Invasion: Lessons from the Pinochet Cases
Hot Stories
Alexander Cockburn
Behold,
the Head of a Neo-Con!
Subcomandante
Marcos
The
Death Train of the WTO
Norman Finkelstein
Hitchens
as Model Apostate
Steve Niva
Israel's
Assassination Policy: the Trigger for Suicide Bombings?
Dardagan,
Slobodo and Williams
CounterPunch Exclusive:
20,000 Wounded Iraqi Civilians
Steve
J.B.
Prison Bitch
Sheldon
Rampton and John Stauber
True Lies: the Use of Propaganda
in the Iraq War
Wendell
Berry
Small Destructions Add Up
CounterPunch
Wire
WMD: Who Said What When
Cindy
Corrie
A Mother's Day Talk: the Daughter
I Can't Hear From
Gore Vidal
The
Erosion of the American Dream
Francis Boyle
Impeach
Bush: A Draft Resolution
Click
Here for More Stories.
|
October 26, 2004
You Do the
Math
The
Nation's Flawed Calculus
By
GREG BATES
"Nader Voters Favor Kerry
Over Bush by 3-to-1 Margin," screams a Nation press release
announcing the results of their recent poll, October 24, 2004.
Playing gotcha politics, the Nation's John Nichols claims it
proves "Nader's Flawed Calculus" (October 24 on the
web).
Nichols writes of the survey,
"That's a far cry from
the picture Nader has been painting as he has continued to campaign
in pivotal states such as Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ohio. In late
September, in an interview with The Nation, Nader said,
"You are going to be surprised at the number of Republicans
who back our campaign. We are going to help beat Bush in a number
of these states."
Nichols cites the meat of the
poll:
"Were Nader not in the
running, 49 percent of those surveyed said they would switch
to Kerry, according to the poll by Lake Snell Perry & Associates,
a firm that frequently works for Democrats and public-interest
groups. Only 17 percent indicated a preference for Bush. Another
24 percent said they were unsure what they would do, while 10
percent indicated that they would not vote."
But count that up and you get
51% are either coming from the Bush camp, unsure, or wouldn't
vote in any case. Even assuming the undecideds split down the
middle and cancel each other out, and it leaves Kerry 49% vs
27% for people who would either not vote if Nader wasn't on the
ballot or who would pick Bush.
Nichols continues,
"According to a new poll
conducted for the Democratic National Committee, support for
Nader in a dozen battleground states has fallen from 3 percent
last summer to only 1.5 percent now. But that 1.5 percent could
still matter a great deal."
What Nichols doesn't tell you
is what anyone reading those numbers can see: a trend. Nader
stated in the spring that his progressive support would melt
as the election neared, especially in a close contest. That's
exactly what the numbers Nichols cites prove. But he's so concentrated
on alarming people that there's no time to think whether that
trend might continue. And certainly no consideration that Nichols
might be proving rather than disproving Nader's claim.
I asked David Mermin who is
Senior Vice President of the firm that conducted the poll, Lake,
Snell, Perry and Associates, about whether Nader's support among
progressives might continue to melt. He didn't know but said
it was clearly possible. He pointed out that 30-40% of Nader
voters found issue-based messages about Iraq, healthcare and
the economy "very convincing," and might switch to
vote Kerry. He then stated that those 30-40% who could go to
Kerry are likely to be concentrated among the 49% of Nader voters
who would otherwise vote Kerry anyway if Nader wasn't on the
ballot. If you subtract up to that 40%, your left with 9% of
Nader voters who would otherwise vote for Kerry if Nader wasn't
an option. Meaning, if there is a continued shift toward Kerry,
we could wind up with more Nader voters coming from the Republican
camp than from the Kerry camp, which was precisely Nader's prediction.
Also used to hammer Nader is
a result that only 16% said they would not vote if Nader wasn't
running, appearing to contradict Nader's claim that he will get
more voters to the polls. But the question had a high refusal
rate, 13% wouldn't answer, casting some doubt on how firm that
16% is. Presumably those who say they would not vote if Nader
wasn't on the ballot are the true diehards. If Nader's progressive
support continues to melt as he predicts, that 16% sliver that
goes to the polls because of his candidacy might in the end represent
a higher percentage of Nader voters, knocking away yet another
criticism of his campaign.
There's also some cheer in
the poll. As mentioned above, the poll firm's memo states that
"After hearing issue-based message about the risk of four
more years of Bush, Nader voters are more open to Kerry. Four
in ten voters find messages on the Iraq war, health care, and
the economy "very convincing" as reasons to vote for
Kerry." But what about the other six in ten? Does that mean
they continue to see Kerry clearly? Does that 60% majority realize
that Kerry's plan for Iraq isn't substantially different from
Bush's, that Kerry's healthcare plan will still leave millions
uninsured while shoveling cash into the hands of business, that
Kerry's economy means the continued concentration of wealth in
the hands of fewer people?
I asked Mermin about this.
He said that while 30-40% found the messages to be "very
convincing" reasons to vote Kerry, for the rest they "weren't
very convincing," and therefore unlikely that such messages
would be a factor in their decision, he concluded.
I'm not saying it's good or
bad that some Nader voters are rigid. Only that it's heartening
that a majority of them can see the limits of the propaganda.
Here are the messages designed to sway Nader voters, that only
40% found convincing:
* Our economy is at risk. Bush
supports continuing tax breaks for companies that send jobs overseas
and expanding tax breaks for the wealthiest 1%. He opposes raising
the minimum wage and Bush has given billions in no-bid contracts
to friends at Halliburton. We need politicians that will help
working middle-class families. We can not risk electing Bush.
* We went to war in Iraq based
on lies about weapons of mass destruction. We have spent 200
billion dollars rebuilding Iraq with no bid contracts to corporate
contributors like Cheney's company Halliburton. Bush has no plan
to get out of Iraq and now Bush and the Pentagon have a plan
to reinstate the draft. We can not risk electing Bush.
* We went to war in Iraq based
on lies about weapons of mass destruction. We have spent 200
billion dollars rebuilding Iraq with no bid contracts to corporate
contributors like Cheney's company Halliburton. Bush has no plan
to get out of Iraq. We can not risk electing Bush.
* Health care costs are rising
out of control. Bush has no plan to get health care costs under
control. He has taken 7.5 million dollars in contributions from
drug companies and insurance companies and now opposes re-importing
cheaper drugs from Canada. Under Bush, Medicare rates were just
raised 17% - the biggest increase in history, with the money
largely going to HMO's and drug companies. With health care costs
going up and coverage reduced, we can not risk re-electing George
W. Bush.
There's nothing wrong with
these accusations against Bush, but you can see immediately why
so few Nader voters find in them reason to vote Kerry: the need
to oust Bush doesn't translate, in these questions anyway, into
a need to elect Kerry. There's not a single line that pitches
Kerry in a favorable light. And that, in my view, is Kerry's
fault.
There's something more profound
about the Nation's glee: they are sounding the alarm over a group
of Nader voters so small in number that they are incredibly unlikely
to swing the election. As Nichols says, support is down to 1.5%.
That's half what it was in 2000. So a repeat of 2000, where Nader
voters were a marginal factor, would require an election far
closer than 2000. If Nader's support melts further, the election
would have to be closer still. That's plain unlikely. Polls abound
showing Nader voters capable of swinging the vote. But the only
voters really capable of doing that are the ones who might otherwise
vote Kerry, which the nation poll shows are just 49%, or about
half of the 1.5%. Virtually all polls state a margin of error
of a few percentage points. Measuring the effect of so few voters
who would otherwise vote Kerry isn't really possible with current
polling techniques.
Major media have commented
on why polls are so unreliable this year-more voters are using
cell phones that don't get dialed into by surveyors the way land
lines are, and those with landlines often have caller ID and
screen out unfamiliar numbers, and with an election. Crucially,
since polls often provide wildly differing results from each
other, what matters is the trend over time in polls taken by
the same organization. Comparing Gallup in the summer to Gallup
in the fall, CBS last week to CBS this week, etc., is what yields
a sense of direction and clarity about likely outcomes of a close
race. In short, you can't really tell much of anything scientifically
by looking at a one-shot poll like the Nation's. But analysis
has never stopped a Nader critic in the midst of a rant.
The proper way to view a one-shot
poll like this is in the context of other polls. There's an interesting
poll from USA today at http://www.usatoday.com/
taken October 14-16. It shows that those who would vote for Nader
come evenly from the Kerry and Bush camps, with actually slightly
more from the Bush camp. But Nader critics, to maintain their
consistency, have to be selective. Here's Jim Motavalli of
E Magazine, using an article from the New York Times, October
15, 2004:
"Nader either blatantly
lied or displayed willful ignorance on polling results. He claimed
that a Zogby poll revealed that he draws as many votes from Republicans
as Democrats. The Times was forced to correct the record.
'Shawnta Walcott, a spokeswoman for Zogby, said its polls showed
Nader drawing far more from Kerry.' The Times wrote, 'She
said the polls, aggregated from March through September, showed
that if Nader were not an option, 41 percent of his supporters
would go to Kerry, 15 percent to Bush and 30 percent to another
candidate, with 13 percent undecided.' "
Most progressives take the
New York Times with a grain of salt, but when it comes to Nader,
critics accept it as gospel. As Motavalli goes on,
"How does Ralph Nader
sleep at night? Even such presumed Naderites as Greg Bates, author
of the recent book, Ralph's Revolt: The Case for Joining Nader's
Rebellion, says voters in swing states should consider voting
for Kerry."
That lie caught my attention.
I don't give advice to swing state voters-selecting a candidate
is an intensely personal decision about how voters perceive the
differences between Kerry and Bush, about how risky it may be
to vote Nader, and about whether they are willing to accept those
risks. Those are subjective value choices, not objective questions.
Voters need dialog and discussion of the factors. But I don't
think urging voters one way or the other is helpful. Swing state
voters are every bit as capable as the next person of making
thoughtful choices.
But hasn't Motavalli nonetheless
caught Nader in a bald-faced lie, the ridiculous premise that
he'll have as many Republican votes as progressive ones? I asked
one of his campaign staff, Kevin Zeese about this. He pointed
out the USA today poll cited above showing Nader voters were
split between Kerry and Bush, and then noted that Zogby himself
pointed that this was true back in August. As John M. Glionna
reported in "Nader Faces Legal and Ballot Challenges, Dwindling
Support:" in the LA Times, August 28:
"Pollster John Zogby said
it was unclear who would be hurt more if Nader
remained in the presidential race - the Republicans or Democrats.
" 'Half of Nader voters
would not vote if he dropped out of the race," he
said. "A quarter of them are people who would otherwise
vote for Kerry.
But interestingly, we're finding that a quarter are being taken
from Bush.' "
Zeese points out that the Times
simply interviewed a Zogby staffer who said something different.
With the polls all over the map in a tight election, calling
Nader a liar for saying he didn't see any evidence to support
the idea that he's taking more from Kerry than Bush, is hardly
the kind of journalism progressives should be proffering. In
fact that very Times article goes on, right under the quote Motavalli
pulled, to illuminate the trend that neither Motavalli nor Nichols
acknowledge. The Times reports that Democratic pollster Anna
Greenberg said that the profile of likely Nader supporters was
changing and beginning to resemble that of voters who supported
H. Ross Perot, the third party candidate, in 1996, rather than
those who supported Nader in 2000."
The Times quotes her further,
"'Nader is taking less
out of Kerry now,' she said. 'So the leftover Nader vote is more
conservative,' meaning that they were Bush supporters originally
but have defected, probably because he has allowed the deficit
to balloon."
But for Motavalli, as for Nichols,
the trend is outside what constitutes respectable debate.
Returning to the Nation, instead
of proclaiming that "Nader voters favor Kerry over Bush
by a 3 to 1 margin," and bashing Nader for being wrong,
they might have put their poll into the context of others and
stated that the data are just plain inconclusive. And they could
have acknowledged that so many had ridiculed Nader for a prediction
that, with each passing day, looks more and more likely to come
to pass. That would have been correct. But complex facts that
get in the way of the Nation's simple truth are omitted.
It's easy to see where this
will probably lead. The decks are statistically stacked against
the possibility that Nader voters who would otherwise vote for
Kerry will in fact cost Kerry the election. Yes, it's possible,
but less likely than the possibility of a journalist fitting
through the eye of a needle. Far more likely is a victory by
Bush or by Kerry without Nader voters playing a pivotal role.
Then, when the Nader doomsday scenario fails to materialize,
all those pundits and groups who have trashed Nader and urged
voters to vote Kerry will proclaim euphoric victory for having
illuminated the difference between Kerry and Bush. They won't
credit the half a billion dollars spent by Kerry and Bush to
outline their differences. They won't credit the Democrat's scurrilous
campaign to keep Nader off the ballot. They won't credit the
fact that 2000 was a statistical fluke unlikely to appear again.
And they certainly won't credit Nader for having accurately predicted
in February that he would take more votes from Bush than from
Kerry. Whatever the truth, Nader just can't be right. That would
necessitate an apology for all that they've done to his reputation
that they so carefully pretend to be concerned about. Instead,
if Kerry wins, we will probably be fed the line that the country
was saved from Nader by the Nation and other anti-Nader groups.
Greg Bates is the founding publisher at Common
Courage Press and author of Ralph's
Revolt: The Case For Joining Nader's Rebellion. He can be
reached at gbates@commoncouragepress.com.
Weekend
Edition Features for October 16 / 17, 2004
Alexander Cockburn
The
Free Speech Movement and Howard Stern
Leslie Brill
Unmerciful Judge, Merry Executioners: the Death Penalty as the
True Measure of Bush's Character
Jules Rabin
Reckoning Deaths in an Agitated World
Dave Lindorff
About the Bush Bulge: Was There a Pucker in That Jacket or Was
the President Just Glad to be There?
Peter Linebaugh
Judging Judges: a Few Pages from The Mirror of Justices
Gary Leupp
Iran and Syria: How to Effect Regime Change and Expand the Empire
M. Shahid Alam
America, Imagine This!
Ron Jacobs
Trying to Cross Lake Champlain
Fred Gardner
The Flu Vaccine Question: How Bush Blew It
Jenna Orkin
The Toxic Legacy of 9/11
Dave Zirin
Name the DC Baseball Team: Contest Results
David Hamilton
Alone and Exposed: Bush as a Strong Leader?
Ralph Nader
Criticizing Israel is Not Anti-Semitism
Doug Giebel
Thinking the Unthinkable
Mark Engler
Crimes in Freedom's Name: Dick Cheney's El Salvador
Derek Tyner
Blacks Didn't Get the Vote by Voting: an Interview With Clarence
Thomas on the Million Worker March
Evan Jones
Gimme That Ole Time Religion: Cash and "The Mind of the
South"
Poets' Basement
LaMorticella, Klipschutz and Albert
Website of
the Weekend
No More Bush Girls
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